Abstract
In the present study, an estimation of the future change in precipitation within the 21st century was carried out for the 12 climatic zones of Greece. The estimation is based on the results of 12 Regional Climate Models (RCM) simulations of the ENSEMBLES Program. The precipitation is projected to decrease mildly in the near future (2021-2050) and moderately in the far future (2071-2100) by 5% and 20% respectively for the area of Greece. The decrease seems to be most prominent during spring and summer, less prominent during winter. The autumn precipitation is projected to increase mildly in the near future and to decrease mildly in the far future. The projected precipitation change in Greece is expected to result in drastic changes on the ground water balance and on several sectors of human activity and environment parameters, as well.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Amanatidis GT, Paliatsos AG, Repapis CC, Bartzis JG (1993) Decreasing precipitation trend in the Marathon area, Greece. Int. J. Climatol. 13, 191–201
Dünkeloh A, Jacobeit J (2003) Circulation dynamics of Mediterranean precipitation variability 1948–98. Int. J. Climatol. 23, 1843–1866, doi: 10.1002/joc.973
Feidas H, Noulopoulou Ch, Makrogiannis T, Bora-Senta E (2007) Trend analysis of precipitation time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955-2001. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 87, 155-177, doi:101007/s00704-006-0200-5
Giorgi F (2006) Climate change hot-spots. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L08707, doi: 10.1029/2006GL025734
González-Rouco JF, Jimenez JL, Quesada V, Valero F (2001) Quality control and homogenization of monthly precipitation data in the southwest of Europe. J. Climate 14, 964–978
Hatzioannou L, Retalis D, Pasiardis S, Nikolakis D, Asimakopoulos DN, Lourantos N (1998) Study of the precipitation time series in SE Greece and Cyprus. Proc. 4th Greek Scientific Conference in Meteorology-Climatology-Atmospheric Physics, pp. 279-284, Athens
Hulme M, Barrow EM, Arnell NW, Harrison PA, Johns TC, Downing TE (1999) Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural variability. Nature 397, 688-691
IPCC (2007) Climate Change (2007): The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Eds. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp
Kandylis F, Repapis C, Kotini-Zambaka S (1989) Climatic changes during last 100 years in eastern Mediterranean. Proc. 1st Greek Conference in Geography, Athens
Metaxas DA, Philandras CM, Nastos PT and Repapis CC (1999) Variability of Precipitation pattern in Greece during the year. Fresen. Environ. Bull. 8, 1-6
Nakićenović N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Raihi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H-H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
Nastos PT, Zerefos CS (2009) Spatial and temporal variability of consecutive dry and wet days in Greece. Atmos. Res. 94, 616–628
Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X (2004) Consistency of recent European summer precipitation trends and extremes with future regional climate projections. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L13202, doi:10.1029/2004GL019836
Piervitali E, Colasino M, Conte M (1998) Rainfall over the central-western Mediterranean basin in the period 1951-1995. Part I: precipitation trends. Geophysics and Space Physics 21C, 331–344
Tselioudis G, Zerefos C, Repapis C, Zanis P (2006) Climate Predictions for the Mediterranean Region, International Geosphere Biosphere Programme -Global Change Programme of the Academy pf Athens, Colloquium entitled “Climate Change”, Athens, 41–50
Türkes M (1998) Influence of geopotential heights, cyclone frequency and southern oscillation on rainfall variations in Turkey. Int. J. Climatol. 18, 649–680
Xoplaki E (2002) Climate variability over the Mediterranean. PhD thesis, University of Bern, Switzerland ([http://sinus.unibe.ch/klimet/docs/phd_xoplaki.pdf])
Zanis P, Kapsomenakis I, Philandras C, Douvis K, Nikolakis D, KanelopoulouE, Zerefos C, Repapis C (2009) Analysis of an ensemble of present day and future regional climate simulations for Greece. Int. J. Climatol. 29, 1614-1633, doi:10.1002/joc
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Kapsomenakis, J., Nastos, P., Douvis, C., Eleftheratos, K., Zerefos, C. (2011). Estimation of precipitation change over Greece during the 21st century, using RCM simulations. In: Lambrakis, N., Stournaras, G., Katsanou, K. (eds) Advances in the Research of Aquatic Environment. Environmental Earth Sciences. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19902-8_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19902-8_6
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-19901-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-19902-8
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)