Abstract
In this chapter we are going to talk about load forecasting, as one of the basic and perhaps the most important module of power system planning issues. Although some other words, such as, demand and consumption are also used instead of load, we use load as the most common term. The actual term is electric load; however, electric is omitted here and assumed to be obvious. It is well understood that both the energy (MWh, kWh) and the power (MW, kW) are the two basic parameters of a load. By load, we mean the power. However, if energy is required in our analyses, we will use the energy demand or simply the energy, to refer to it. Obviously if the load shape is known, the energy can be calculated from its integral.
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Notes
- 1.
Here we are not involved with the level. In Sect. 4.4, we will come back to the point.
- 2.
For some types of studies such as fuel and water managements.
- 3.
See Chap. 11 for the uncertainties involved in power system planning problem.
- 4.
Even if we bother, who can predict the daily variations of say, 5Â years from now?
- 5.
Either assumed to be fixed or ineffective in our model.
- 6.
See the references at the end of this chapter.
- 7.
Once substations are decided, we move towards other steps of the planning procedure.
- 8.
This ratio depends on the system under study and may be estimated using historical data.
- 9.
They are normally predicted for larger geographical areas.
- 10.
A small area may be dominantly residential, while another may be industrial or combinatory.
- 11.
New in the study year for which the load is to be predicted.
- 12.
Note that, some specific loads are also added in this table. These may be of the same nature of large customers without having a contract. For instance, a large residential complex may be considered as a specific load.
- 13.
We assume that for the historical data, the demand supplied is not the actual demand required (TD). In fact if, for instance, we have some load curtailments (LC) or the system operator has intentionally dropped the frequency to compensate, somewhat, the generation deficiency (FD), we have to add these and similar terms to find out the actual demand (TD). All terms are in MW.
- 14.
The loads interrupted based on some types of contracts.
- 15.
For definition of GDP, see Chap. 3.
- 16.
For more informations on available models (AR, ARMA, etc.), see, the list of the references at the end of the chapter.
- 17.
Eviews and SPSS are two typical available software.
- 18.
For some details on ARMA, see Appendix C.
References
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References [1] and [2] are two books published on some aspects of load forecasting in an electric power system.
Short term load forecasting has received much attention in literature. Some of them are covered in [3–7]. Some details on the models discussed in Sect. 4.6.2, are provided in [8]. References [9] and [10] emphasize spatial load forecasting. References [11] and [12] are devoted to load forecasting bibliography at the time of publication. The publications on long term load forecasting are also quite a few. Some of them are given in [13–19].
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Seifi, H., Sepasian, M.S. (2011). Load Forecasting. In: Electric Power System Planning. Power Systems. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-17989-1_4
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