Power System Planning in the Presence of Uncertainties

Abstract

We have so far covered various power system planning issues, namely, load forecasting, GEP, SEP, NEP and RPP. We assumed, implicitly, that all decisions are made by a single entity. Moreover, we assumed that the information used lacks any uncertainty. None of the above is strictly true. In terms of the former, due to power system de-regulating, GEP, from one side, is unbundled from the others (SEP, NEP and RPP). Some new market participants act as major players for investing on new generation facilities. These generation companies try to make the most profit from their investments. They should, somehow predict the rivals behaviors. They should, have their own input information (such as the system load forecasting) for proper decision makings. From this viewpoint, GEP is a completely different story in comparison with the traditional environment. We will see, however, that a modified traditional GEP may also be used in the de-regulated environment; now, from other entities viewpoints. If GEP is decided by some entities based on their own judgements, how can a different or some different entities proceed towards the other steps (SEP, NEP and RPP) if they cannot make sure what the GEP players do in actual life. Still, there are more uncertainties involved for their various decision makings. So, briefly speaking, uncertainties play major roles in power system planning issues of the new environment.