Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Does Climate Change Lead to Conflicts in the Sahel?

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
The End of Desertification?

Part of the book series: Springer Earth System Sciences ((SPRINGEREARTH))

Abstract

A dominant narrative in international politics and media presentations holds that there is a close connection between climate change and conflicts, especially conflicts involving pastoralists in the Sahel. The narrative consists of two elements: (1) Global climate change leads to drought and desertification, which in turn lead to resource scarcity; (2) This scarcity leads to migration and the emergence of new conflicts, or it triggers existing, latent conflicts. This chapter is a critical assessment of these claims based on two case studies from Mali and a review of international research. The narrative is attractive to politicians and bureaucrats, in particular, and is championed by some influential scholars. In both case studies, the drought in the 1980s only played a minor role in explaining the conflict, while the root causes were political and historical. In addition, there does not seem to be any clear link between resource scarcity in the Sahel in the 1980s and global climate change. An association between scarcity and increased conflict levels cannot, however, be dismissed, even if empirical results from international research question the validity of such a correlation. The causes of conflicts in the Sahel are in general associated with state policies, which result in the marginalization of pastoralists. In areas where pastoralism and farming overlap as the main forms of land use, there are continuous conflicts of varying scale and intensity. These conflicts are primarily caused by politics, not climate change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Ag Baye, C. (1993). The process of a peace agreement. Between the movements and the United Fronts of Azawad and the government of Mali. In H. Veber, J. Dahl, F. Wilson & E. Wæhle (Eds.), “…Never drink from the same cup”. Proceedings of the conference on indigenous peoples in Africa (pp. 247–256). Tune, Denmark. IWGIA Document no. 74.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ba, B. (2008). Pouvoirs, ressources et développement dans le delta central du Niger. Paris: L’Harmattan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bächler, G. (1998). Violence through environmental discrimination. Causes, Rwanda arena, and conflict model. Dordrecht/Boston/London: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bächler, G., & Spillmann, K. R. (Eds.). (1996). Environmental degradation as a cause of war. Country studies of external experts. Chur-Zürich: Rüegger.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barnett, J. (2003). Security and climate change. Global Environmental Change, 13, 717.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barrière, O., & Barrière, C. (2002). Un droit à inventer. Foncier et environnement dans le delta intérieur du Niger. Editions IRD, collection “A travers champs”. Paris: Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD).

    Google Scholar 

  • Behnke, R., & Scoones, I. (1993). Rethinking range ecology: Implications for rangeland management in Africa. In R. Behnke, I. Scoones & C. Kerven (Eds.), Range ecology at disequilibrium. New models of natural variability and pastoral adaptation in African savannas. London: Overseas Development Institute and International Institute for Environment and Development.

    Google Scholar 

  • Behnke, R., Scoones, I., & Kerven, C. (Eds.). (1993). Range ecology at disequilibrium. New models of natural variability and pastoral adaptation in African savannas. London: Overseas Development Institute and International Institute for Environment and Development.

    Google Scholar 

  • Benjaminsen, T. (1997). Natural resource management, paradigm shifts and the decentralization reform in Mali. Human Ecology, 25(1), 121–143.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benjaminsen, T. A. (2001). The population-agriculture-environment nexus in the Malian cotton zone. Global Environmental Change, 11(4), 27–39.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benjaminsen, T. A. (2008). Does supply-induced scarcity drive violent conflicts in the African Sahel? The case of the Tuareg rebellion in northern Mali. Journal of Peace Research, 45(6), 831–848.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benjaminsen, T. A., Alinon, K., Buhaug, H., & Buseth, J. T. (2012). Does climate change drive land-use conflicts in the Sahel? Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 97–111.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benjaminsen, T. A., & Ba, B. (2009). Farmer-herder conflicts, pastoral marginalisation and corruption: a case study from the inland Niger delta of Mali. The Geographical Journal, 174(1), 71–81.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benjaminsen, T. A., & Berge, G. (2004). Une histoire de Tombouctou. Arles: Actes-Sud.

    Google Scholar 

  • Biasutti, M. (2013). Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118, 1613–1623.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boko, M., Niang, I., Nyong, A., Vogel, C., Githeko, A., Medany, M., et al. (2007) Africa. Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In M. L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden & C. E. Hanson (Eds.), Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (pp. 433–467). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boserup, E. (1965). The conditions of agricultural growth. London: Earthscan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Buhaug, H. (2010). Climate not to blame for African civil wars. Paper presented at the ‘Climate Change and Security’ conference, Trondheim, June 21–24, 2010. http://climsec.prio.no/papers/Climate%20wars%20DKNVS2010.pdf

  • Buhaug, H., Gleditsch, N. P., & Theisen, O. M. (2010). Implications of climate change for armed conflict. In R. Mearns & A. Norton (Eds.), Social dimensions of climate change: Equity and vulnerability in a warming world (pp. 75–101). World Bank, Washington, DC: New Frontiers of Social Policy.

    Google Scholar 

  • Buontempo, C., Booth, B., & Moufouma-Okia, W. (2010). The climate of the Sahel. In P. Heinrigs & M. Trémolières (Eds.), Global security risks and West Africa. Development challenges(pp. 58–71). Paris: OECD.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burke, M. B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J. A., & Lobell, D. B. (2009). Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 20670–20674.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chappell, A., & Agnew, C. (2004). Modelling climate change in West African Sahel rainfall (1931–90) as an artifact of changing station locations. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 547–554.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cotula, L., & Cissé, S. (2006). Changes in ‘customary’ resource tenure systems in the inner Niger delta, Mali. Journal of Legal Pluralism and Unofficial Law, 52, 129.

    Google Scholar 

  • Diamond, J. (2005). Collapse. How societies choose to fail or survive. London: Allen Lane.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ellis, J. E., & Swift, D. M. (1988). Stability of African pastoral ecosystems: Alternate paradigms and implications for development. Journal of Range Management, 41(6), 450–459.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fairhead, J. (2001). International dimensions of conflict over natural and environmental resources. In N. L. Peluso & M. Watts (Eds.), Violent environments (pp. 213–236). Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Forse, B. (1989). The myth of the marching desert. New Scientist, 4, 31–32.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleditsch, N. P. (1998). Armed conflict and the environment: A critique of the literature. Journal of Peace Research, 35(3), 363–380.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haarsma, R. J., Selten, F., Weber, N., & Kliphuis, M. (2005). Sahel rainfall variability and responses to greenhouse warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L17702. doi:10.1029/2005GL023232.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hiernaux, P. (1993). The crisis of Sahelian pastoralism: Ecological or economic? Addis Ababa: International Livestock Centre for Africa.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hiernaux, P., Mougin, E., Diarra, L., Soumaguel, N., Lavenu, F., Tracol, Y., et al. (2009). Sahelian rangeland response to changes in rainfall over two decades in the Gourma region, Mali. Journal of Hydrology, 375(1–2), 114–127.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Homer-Dixon, T. (1994). Environmental scarcities and violent conflict. Evidence from cases. International Security, 19(1), 5–40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Homer-Dixon, T. (1999). Environment, scarcity, and violence. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Homer-Dixon, T. (2007). Terror in the weather forecast. The New York Times, April 24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hulme, M. (2001). Climatic perspectives on Sahelian desiccation: 1973–1998. Global Environmental Change, 11(1), 19–29.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hutchinson, C. F., Herrmann, S. M., Maukonen, T., & Weber, J. (2005). Introduction: The ‘Greening’ of the Sahel. Journal of Arid Environments, 63, 535–537.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahl, C. H. (2006). States, scarcity, and civil strife in the developing world. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaplan, R. D. (1994). The coming anarchy: How scarcity, crime, overpopulation, and disease are rapidly destroying the social fabric of our planet (pp. 44–76). Atlantic Monthly, February.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kevane, M., & Gray, L. (2008). Darfur: Rainfall and conflict. Environmental Research Letters, 3, 034006. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/3/034006.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ki-Moon, B. (2007). A climate culprit in Darfur. Washington Post 16 June.

    Google Scholar 

  • Klute, G. (1995). Hostilités et alliances. Archéologie de la dissidence des touaregs au Mali. Cahiers d’Études Africaines, 137(XXXV-1), 55–71.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kouyaté, S. (2006). Etude des enjeux nationaux de protection du basin du fleuve Niger. Report to Groupe de Coordination des Zones Arides (GCOZA). Bamako: GCOZA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lecocq, B. (2004). Unemployed intellectuals in the Sahara: The teshumara nationalist movement and the revolutions in Tuareg society. IRSH, 49, 87–109.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mazo, J. (2010). Climate conflict. How global warming threatens security and what to do about it. London: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mortimore, M. (1998). Roots in the African dust: Sustaining the sub-Saharan drylands. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Moseley, W. G. (2005). Reflecting on National Geographic Magazine and Academic Geography: The September 2005 special issue on Africa. African Geographical Revie, 24, 93–100.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mougin, E., Hiernaux, P., Kergoat, L., Grippa, M., De Rosnay, P., Timouk, F., et al. (2009). The AMMA-CATCH Gourma observatory site in Mali: Relating climatic variations to changes in vegetation, surface hydrology, fluxes and natural resources. Journal of Hydrology, 375(1–2), 34–51.

    Google Scholar 

  • Niang, I. & Ruppel, O. C. (Coordinating Lead Authors). (2014). Africa, in IPCC 5th assessment report (Chapter 22).

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordås, R., & Gleditsch, N. P. (2007). Climate change and conflict. Political Geography, 26, 627–638.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Odekunle, T. O., Andrew, O., & Aremu, S. O. (2008). Towards a wetter Sudano-Sahelian ecological zone in twenty-first century Nigeria. Weather, 63(3), 66–70.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olsson, L., Eklundh, L., & Ardö, J. (2005). A recent greening of the Sahel—Trends, patterns and potential causes. Journal of Arid Environments, 63, 556–566.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the commons: The evolution of institutions for collective action. New York: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Peluso, N. L., & Watts, M. (Eds.). (2001). Violent environments. Ithaca & London: Cornell University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Poteete, A. R., Janssen, M. A., & Ostrom, E. (2010). Working together. Collective action, the commons, and multiple methods in practice. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Poulton, R. E., & Ag Youssouf, I. (1998). A peace of Timbuktu. Democratic governance, development and African peacemaking. New York and Geneva: UNIDIR.

    Google Scholar 

  • Richards, P. (Ed.). (2005). No peace, no war: An anthropology of contemporary armed conflicts. Oxford: James Currey.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sachs, J. (2007). Poverty and environmental stress fuel Darfur crisis. Nature, 449, 24. September 6, 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  • Salehyan, I. (2008). From climate change to conflict? No consensus yet. Journal of Peace Research, 45(3), 315–326.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sullivan, S., & Rohde, R. F. (2002). On non-equilibrium in arid and semi-arid grazing systems. Journal of Biogeography, 29, 1–26.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Theisen, O. M. (2008). Blood and soil? Resource scarcity and internal armed conflict revisted. Journal of Peace Research, 45(6), 813–830.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tiffen, M., Mortimore, M., & Gichuki, F. (1994). More people, less erosion. Environmental recovery in Kenya. Chichester: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tucker, C., Dregne, H. E., & Newcomb, W. W. (1991). Expansion and contraction of the Sahara desert from 1980 to 1990. Science, 253, 299–301.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tucker, C., & Nicholson, S. (1999). Variations in the size of the Sahara Desert from 1980 to 1997. Ambio, 28(7), 587–591.

    Google Scholar 

  • Turner, M. (1992). Living on the edge: Fulbe herding practices and the relationship between economy and ecology in the inland Niger Delta of Mali. Ph.D. dissertation, University of California, Berkeley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Turner, M. (1993). Overstocking the range: A critical analysis of the environmental science of Sahelian Pastoralism. Economic Geography, 69(4), 402–421.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNEP. (2007). Sudan: Post-conflict environmental assessment. Nairobi: UNEP.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warren, A., & Khogali, M. (1992). Assessment of desertification and drought in the Sudano-Sahelian region 1985–1991. New York: UNSO.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of International Environment and Development Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, PO Box 5003, 1432 Ås, Akershus, Norway

    Tor A. Benjaminsen

Authors
  1. Tor A. Benjaminsen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tor A. Benjaminsen .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Great Wolford, Odessa Centre, Shipstpon-on-Stour, United Kingdom

    Roy Behnke

  2. Drylands Research, Milborne Port, United Kingdom

    Michael Mortimore

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Benjaminsen, T.A. (2016). Does Climate Change Lead to Conflicts in the Sahel?. In: Behnke, R., Mortimore, M. (eds) The End of Desertification? . Springer Earth System Sciences. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-16014-1_4

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation