Abstract
Resident population prediction is very important to sustainable urban construction. Population forecasts by age group and sex can be derived through cohort-component method. This method requires at least two consecutive censuses data, but in this paper we will address the problem of how to apply this method to predict population with only one census data. Furthermore, there are no firsthand materials about fertility rate, and the form of migration rate is not suitable for the cohort-component model directly. Under these circumstances, we have to do some processing to those data in order to better model the method. It is proved that this method performs well in population prediction.
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Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the project of Research on Population Size and Structure Based on Urban Development of Beilun (Project No: 1200242168). We would also like to thank the professors and classmates who are in the same group with us for their helpful comments, suggestions, which significantly improved an earlier version of this paper.
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Lv, B., Zhang, J., He, H. (2011). Resident Population Prediction Based on Cohort-Component Method. In: Wu, D. (eds) Modeling Risk Management in Sustainable Construction. Computational Risk Management. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-15243-6_40
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-15243-6_40
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