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Intense Precipitation and High Floods – Observations and Projections

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Abstract

According to physical laws, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and hence the potential for intense precipitation increases with warming. Since a robust warming signal and a number of large rain-caused floods have been observed recently, it is of paramount importance to examine whether there has been an increasing trend in intense precipitation and flood flow. However, even if widespread increases in observed intense precipitation have been reported in many areas, the analysis of annual maximum river flow records does not detect an ubiquitous and coherent increasing trend. This is in disagreement with some projections for the future, where increasing intense precipitation and flood hazard are expected. One can conclude that flood process is complex, influenced by several non-climatic factors, and can be caused by several generating mechanisms, which are affected in different ways by climate change. Hence, issuing a flat-rate statement on change in flood hazard is not justified.

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Acknowledgements

The present study is a background activity of the author within the WATCH (Water and Global Change) Project of the 6th Framework Programme of the EU.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment Polish Academy of Sciences, 60809, Poznan, Poland

    Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

  2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412, Potsdam, Germany

    Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

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  1. Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
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Correspondence to Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Abt. Integrierte Systemanalyse, Potsdam Institut für, Telegraphenberg A31, Potsdam, 14412, Brandenburg, Germany

    Jürgen Kropp

  2. Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam Institut für, Telegrafenberg 31 A, Potsdam, 14473, Brandenburg, Germany

    Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber

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Kundzewicz, Z.W. (2011). Intense Precipitation and High Floods – Observations and Projections. In: Kropp, J., Schellnhuber, HJ. (eds) In Extremis. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-14863-7_6

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