Zuverlässigkeit von Indizes und Markterhebungen zur kurzfristigen Zukunftseinschätzung am Beispiel des institutionellen Investmentmarktes (Immobilien) – 2 Jahre Erfahrung aus einer monatlichen Konjunktureinschätzung

Abstract

Short-term real estate property market forecasts – qualitative data based on business tendency surveys and qualitative elevation – could be reliable within a 4–6 months time frame in the near future. This is reliable, if the overall economical cycle within a region or country is in context with the survey and therefore a correlation is determined. This result will than show a financial investment window for investments into specific real estate asset classes and can assist Investors’ decision making processes. Results shown out of the survey have to be matched with quantitative data of monthly available historic data. This data should be of economical relevance to mirror the economic cycle various levels (World, Region, Country, Industry) setting the big picture of general trends and putting it into a time relation.