Abstract
FREIGHTVISION uses business-as-usual forecasts to quantify the changes of suggested measures. This chapter defines the assumptions that have been set for three possible futures: a low forecast with optimistic assumptions such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) will work very soon, a trend forecast that assumes only little changes compared to today, and a high forecast when technologies fail to deliver its promises. In all forecasts the reductions are too little to meet the Visions set from Chap. 7. The results of the forecasting approach is that for the majority of the indicators and timestamps the gap between where we would like to be at and where we are likely to be at continues to widen. This applies even for the low forecast, which is comparably optimistic on the improvement of truck engines, continuously increasing average load factors and other technology driven possibilities.
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Notes
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Community database on Accidents on the Roads in Europe.
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Schmiele, J., Mattila, T., Antikainen, R., Hansen, C.O., Rich, J., Glöckl, U. (2011). Forecasts. In: Helmreich, S., Keller, H. (eds) FREIGHTVISION - Sustainable European Freight Transport 2050. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-13371-8_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-13371-8_6
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