Business Trend Analysis by Simulation

  • Helen Schonenberg
  • Jingxian Jian
  • Natalia Sidorova
  • Wil van der Aalst
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 6051)


Business processes are constantly affected by the environment in which they execute. The environment can change due to seasonal and financial trends. For organisations it is crucial to understand their processes and to be able to estimate the effects of these trends on the processes. Business process simulation is a way to investigate the performance of a business process and to analyse the process response to injected trends. However, existing simulation approaches assume a steady state situation. Until now correlations and dependencies in the process have not been considered in simulation models, which can lead to wrong estimations of the performance. In this work we define an adaptive simulation model with a history-dependent mechanism that can be used to propagate changes in the environment through the model. In addition we focus on the detection of dependencies in the process based on the executions of the past. We demonstrate the application of adaptive simulation models by means of an experiment.


Business Process Reference Model Business Process Management Adaptive Model Process Instance 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Helen Schonenberg
    • 1
  • Jingxian Jian
    • 1
  • Natalia Sidorova
    • 1
  • Wil van der Aalst
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Mathematics & Computer ScienceEindhoven University of TechnologyEindhovenThe Netherlands

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