Abstract
This chapter discusses how to develop scenarios of environmental change to estimate future migration flows that are forced by environmental degradation. The methodology as well as the examples presented here was developed in the EU-funded project EACH-FOR (www.each-for.eu). In the next section, the chapter discusses environmental degradation and gives an overview of the ‘hot spots’ in the case studies. This section is followed by an introduction to scenarios in general and the scenario narratives of the fourth Global Environmental Outlook (GEO 4; UNEP and United Nations Environment Programme, 2007) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which were used in the EACH-FOR project. The fourth section gives a detailed description of the EACH-FOR approach – including two case study examples from Egypt and Mozambique. The chapter finishes with conclusions that sum up the first results of the work with scenarios in the case studies and reflect on the approach taken in the EACH-FOR project.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
For further details see UNU-EHS (2008) and Stal (2009), both sources available on www.each-for.eu.
- 2.
For further details see ERASMUS (2008) and Afifi (2009), both sources available on www.each-for.eu. See also Chapter 15 in this book.
References
Afifi, T. (2009): Egypt. Case Study Report. EACH-FOR, Environmental change and forced migration scenarios, Deliverable 2.5.2.1, www.each-for.eu
Bindoff, N.L., J. Willebrand, V. Artale, A. Cazenave, J. Gregory, S. Gulev, K. Hanawa, C. Le Quéré, S. Levitus, Y. Nojiri, C.K. Shum, L.D. Talley, and A. Unnikrishnan. (2007): Observations: Oceanic climate change and sea level. In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H.L. (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
Boko, M., I. Niang, A. Nyong, C. Vogel, A. Githeko, M. Medany, B. Osman-Elasha, R. Tabo, and P. Yanda. (2007): Africa. In: Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J. and Hanson, C.E., (eds.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. pp. 433–467.
Carter, T.R., R.N. Jones, X. Lu, S. Bhadwal, C. Conde, L.O. Mearns, B.C. O’Neill, M.D.A. Rounsevell, and M.B. Zurek. (2007): New assessment methods and the characterisation of future conditions. In: Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J., and Hanson, C.E., (eds.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. pp. 133–171.
Christensen, J.H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R.K. Kolli, W.-T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L. Mearns, C.G. Menéndez, J. Räisänen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr, and P. Whetton. (2007): Regional climate projections. In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H.L. (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
EIA, Energy Information Administration. (2003): Egypt: Environmental issues. Available from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/egypenv.html
ENVSEC, The Environment and Security Initiative. (2008): Environment and security – Transforming risks into cooperation. Available from http://www.envsec.org
ERASMUS. (2008): General overview study Middle East and Northern Africa. EACH-FOR, Environmental change and forced migration scenarios, Deliverable 2.5.1, www.each-for.eu
FAO, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2007): AQUASTAT. Countries and regions: Mozambique. Available from http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries/mozambique/index.stm
IFs, International Futures. (2008): International futures. Xxx. www.internationalfutures.org
IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2008): Fourth assessment report, Summary for policy makers, Working Group 2. www.ipcc.ch
Jäger, J., D. Rothman, C. Anastasi, S. Kartha, and P. van Notten. (2008): Scenario Development and Analysis. GEO Resource Book, IISD, Canada and UNEP, Nairobi.
MA, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. (2003): Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: A Framework for Assessment. Island Press, Washington, DC.
Stal, M. (2009): Mozambique. Case study report. EACH-FOR, Environmental change and forced migration scenarios, Deliverable 2.4.2.2, www.each-for.eu
UNEP, United Nations Environment Programme. (2002): Vital Climate Graphics Africa. The Nile Delta study. Available from http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/16.htm
UNEP, United Nations Environment Programme. (2006): African Environment Outlook 2. Our environment, our wealth. Available from http://www.unep.org/DEWA/Africa/AEO2_Launch/
UNEP, United Nations Environment Programme. (2007): Global Environmental Outlook. GEO4. Environment for development. progress press, Malta. Available from http://www.unep.org/geo/geo4/media/
UNU-EHS. (2008): General Overview Study Sub-Saharan Africa and Ghana. EACH-FOR, Environmental change and forced migration scenarios, Deliverable 2.4.1, www.each-for.eu
Acknowledgements
This research was carried out within the framework of the EACH-FOR Project with the financial support of the European Commission’s Sixth Framework Programme (contract number 044468).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2010 Springer Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Frühmann, J., Jäger, J. (2010). Linking the Earth’s Future to Migration: Scenarios of Environmental Change and Possible Impacts on Forced Migration. In: Afifi, T., Jäger, J. (eds) Environment, Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12416-7_19
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12416-7_19
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-12415-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-12416-7
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)