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Long-Term Planning and Prediction: Visiting a Construction Site in the Human Brain

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Abstract

Long-term planning and prediction have been suggested to be human faculties that we do not share with other species. Here, evidence for a neurofunctional gradation of prediction and planning functions is reviewed that is located in the frontal lobes and reflects a more or less continuous time scale. It shows that those parts of the gradation that reflect long-term planning and prediction, particularly the frontopolar cortex, appear to mature later during ontogeny and are suggested to have evolved later during phylogeny than those underlying short-term planning and prediction. The review is followed by the report of a series of studies in human subjects that aimed to further our understanding of cognitive planning and prediction and its neural basis in the frontal lobes.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    While area 10 in humans contains more than three times more neurons than in chimpanzees, bonobos, or orangutans, the ratio between cell bodies and neuropil in this area is much lower in humans than in any of the other great apes or gibbons. The more the neuropil as compared to cell bodies is found, the more the space for connections.

  2. 2.

    This does not rule out that hyperscaling is at the basis of unique human abilities; it just indicates that hyperscaling may be a necessary, but cannot be a sufficient, component in explaining these abilities.

  3. 3.

    While Ramnani and Owen do not explicitly present their review as addressing only a frontopolar subregion, functional concepts they consider clearly focus on the lateral area 10 while neglecting the mesial and orbital part of it.

  4. 4.

    Tsujimoto and colleagues provide evidence in favor of a frontal pole role in monitoring or evaluating self-generated decisions. However, one single study cannot provide a solid basis of, but only a first building block for, a functional account for area 10 in macaques.

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Acknowledgments

I want to cordially thank Marc Tittgemeyer for helpful and inspiring input on area 10 structure and function, D. Yves von Cramon for sharing his exceptional knowledge of and fascination in the brain, Katja Kornysheva and Kirsten Volz for prudent comments on ideas and the manuscript, Maria Golde, Anne Kühn, Andreja Bubic, Anna Abraham, and Felix Haarmann for fruitful experimental collaboration, and Andrea Gast-Sandmann for her great spontaneous and elaborate support when creating Fig. 1.

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  1. Max Planck Institute for Neurological Research, Gleueler Str. 50, 50931, Köln, Germany

    Ricarda I. Schubotz

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  1. Institut für Philosophie, Universität Jena, Zwaetzengasse 9, Jena, 07743, Germany

    Wolfgang Welsch

  2. Abt. Neurophysiologie, MPI für Hirnforschung, Deutschordenstr. 46, Frankfurt/Main, 60528, Germany

    Wolf J. Singer

  3. Institut für Philosophie, Universität Jena, Zwaetzengasse 9, Jena, 07743, Germany

    André Wunder

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Schubotz, R.I. (2011). Long-Term Planning and Prediction: Visiting a Construction Site in the Human Brain. In: Welsch, W., Singer, W., Wunder, A. (eds) Interdisciplinary Anthropology. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-11668-1_4

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