Scanning the Horizon

Abstract

In the space of a few short months at the end of 2008 and the start of 2009, the travel and tourism sector went from great optimism to a state of shock and complete disbelief. This state of extreme discomfort was brought on by the speed with which the economy served up a multi-course menu of unpleasant surprises. The downturn has demonstrated that virtually no one can assume they will be immune from global economic uncertainty. At the time of writing, the uncertainty has by no means ended and there remain concerns over further possible shocks in the financial system. In financial services alone we expect more bad news in the form of further large scale losses on sub-prime and prime mortgages, problems in the corporate mortgage market, credit card and personal debt defaults, large payouts on credit default swaps and problems with a range of other complex derivative products about which there are growing concerns.