Abstract
In the early days of severe weather forecasting in the U. S. in the 1950s and 1960s, synoptic conditions associated with severe convection in the Great Plains and to the east were identified. For example, it was noted that a strong low-level southerly jet transporting moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico surmounted by a more westerly jet aloft were synoptic conditions that seemed to permit the development of severe convective storms. This forecasting technique is one of pattern recognition based on synoptic features.
“An intelligence which, for a given instant, could know all the forces by which nature is animated, and the respective situation of the beings who compose it, if, moreover, it was sufficiently vast to submit these data to analysis, if it could embrace in the same formula the movements of the greatest bodies in the universe as well as those of the lightest atom— nothing would be uncertain for it, and the future, like the past, would be present to its eyes.”
Pierre-Simon Laplace—A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
7.5 References and Bibliography
Brooks, H. E., C. A. Doswell, III, and R. A. Maddox (1992) On the use of mesoscale and cloud-scale models in operational forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 120–132.
Brooks, H. E., C. A. Doswell, III, and M. P. Kay (2003) Climatological estimates of local daily tornado probability for the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 626–640.
Brooks, H. E., J. W. Lee, and J. P. Craven (2003) The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data. Atmos. Res., 67/68, 73–94.
Doswell, C. A., III (1987) The distinction between large-scale and mesoscale contribution to severe convection: A case study example. Wea. Forecasting, 2, 3–16.
Grams, J. S., R. L. Thompson, D. V. Snively, J. A. Prentice, G. M. Hodges, and L. J. Reames (2012) A climatology and comparison of parameters for significant tornado events in the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 106–123.
Heymsfield, G. M., S. Guimond, L. Tian, L. Li, M. McLinden, M. Perrine, and A. E. Reynolds (2012) Results and lessons learned from the first flights of the HIWRAP on the Global Hawk during GRIP. 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, American Meteorological Society, Boston, 12A.2.
Houston, A. L., R. L. Thompson, and R. Edwards (2008) The optimal bulk wind differential depth and the utility of the upper-tropospheric storm-relative flow for forecasting supercells. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 825–837.
Johns, R. H. and C. A. Doswell, III (1992) Severe local storms forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 588–612.
Lorenz, E. N. (1969) The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus, 21, 289–307.
Miller, R. C. ([1972], 1975) Notes on Analysis and Severe-Storm Forecasting Procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central, Tech. Report 200 (Revised), Air Weather Service, U. S. Air Force, Offutt Air Force Base, NE, 190 pp.
Moller, A. R. (2001) Severe local storms forecasting. In: C. Doswell, III (Ed.), Severe Convective Storms, AMS Monogr. 28, no. 50, American Meteorological Society, Boston, pp. 433–480.
Rasmussen, E. N. and D. O. Blanchard (1998) A baseline climatology of sounding-derived supercell and tornado forecast parameters. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1148–1164.
Rosenfeld, D. and T. L. Bell (2011) Why do tornados and hailstorms rest on weekends? J. Geophys. Res., 116, D20211, 14 pp.
Snellman, L. W. (1977) Operational forecasting using automated guidance. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 58, 1036–1044.
Stensrud, D. J., J. V. Cortinas, Jr., and H. E. Brooks (1997) Discriminating between tornadic and nontornadic thunderstorms using mesoscale model output. Wea. Forecasting, 12, 613–632.
Stensrud, D. J., M. Xue, L. J. Wicker, K. E. Kelleher, M. P. Foster, J. T. Schaefer, R. S. Schneider, S. G. Benjamin, S. S. Weygandt, J. T. Ferree et al. (2009) Convective-scale warn on forecast: A vision for 2020. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1487–1499.
Thompson, R. L., C. M. Mead, and R. Edwards (2007) Effective storm-relative helicity and bulk shear in supercell thunderstorm environments. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 102–115.
Trapp, J. R., N. S. Diffenbaugh, H. E. Brooks, M. F. Baldwin, E. R. Baldwin, E. D. Robinson, and J. S. Pal (2007) Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. Proc. National Acad. of Sciences, 104, 19719–19723.
Zhang, F., C. Snyder, and R. Rotunno (2003) Effects of moist convection on mesoscale predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1173–1185.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Bluestein, H.B. (2013). Forecasting and future work. In: Severe Convective Storms and Tornadoes. Springer Praxis Books(). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-05381-8_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-05381-8_7
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-05380-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-05381-8
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)