Abstract
The objective of the presented project was to develop and implement a forecasting instrument to predict the oil price in short-, mid- and long-term. Because there are a lot of different and complex factors influencing the oil price, the neural net method was chosen. Many data that could be relevant for the prediction was integrated in the net and several architecture models were tested. The data base consisted of about 2000 data records reflecting the period between 1999 until 2006. As result of the project it can be summarized that the implemented neural nets could not achieve sufficient results in the short-term forecasting but achieved very good results in the mid- and long-term predictions. Therefore it should be a valuable instrument for supporting management decisions in this field.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
International Energy Agency: Oil Markt Report (1999-2006), http://omrpublic.iea.org/archiveresults.asp?formsection=full+issue&Submit=Submit
Zündorf, L.: Das System der internationalen Erdölindustrie. Eine theoretische empirische Skizze, University of Lüneburg, Department of Economic and Social Sciences, work report no. 269, p. 1 (2002)
Zimmerer, T.: Künstliche Neuronale Netze versus ökonomische und zeitreihenanalytische Verfahren zur Prognose ökonomischer Zeitreihen, pp. 101–102 (1997)
Lackes, R., Mack, D.: Neuronale Netze in der Unternehmensplanung: Grundlagen, Entscheidungsunterstützung, Projektierung, Munich (2000) ISBN 3-8006-2508-3
Schoen, J.W.: OPEC says it’s lost control of oil prices. In: MSNBC (March 2005), http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7190109 (visited: 04.02.2009)
Energy Information Administration: Monthly Energy Outlook, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/outlook.html
BP: Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 (June 2007), http://www.bp.com/multipleimagesection.do?categoryId=9017892&contentId=7033503
Rechensteiner, R.: Grün gewinnt, Zurich, Orell Füssil Verlag AG (2003)
Ye, M., Zyren, J., Shore, J.: Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels. International Advances in Economic Research 8(4), 328 (2002)
Heilmann, D.: Raffinerien sind Flaschenhals beim Öl. In: Handelsblatt (September 22, 2005)
Refenes, A.-P.: Neural networks in capital markets, p. 55. John Wiley & Sons Inc., Chichester (1995)
Rehkugler, H., Podding, T.: Kurzfristige Wechelkursprognosen mit Künstlichen Neuronalen Netzwerken. In: Nakhaeizadeh, G. (ed.) Finanzmarktanwendungen neuronaler Netze und Ökonomischer Verfahren, p. 12. Physika Verlag, Heidelberg (1994)
Podding, T.: Bankruptcy Prediction: A Comparison with Discriminant Analysis. In: Refenes, Apostolos-Paul: Neural networks in capital markets, p. 316. John Wiley & Sons Inc., Chichester (1995)
Hollekamp, M.: Benchmarktests für Neuronale Netze, Univ. Münster, Germ. (2001), http://cs.uni-muenster.de/Professoren/Lippe/diplomarbeiten/html/piskors/arbeit.ps
Yao, J., Tan, C.L.: A case study on using neural networks to perform technical forecasting of forex. Neurocomputing 34 (2000)
Zimmermann, H.G.: Neuronale Netze als Entscheidungskalkül. In: Rehkugler, H., Zimmermann, Georg, H. (eds.) Neuronale Netze in der Ökonomie: Grundlagen und finanzwirtschaftliche Anwendung, Munich, Vahlen, pp. 58–59 (1994)
Zell, A., Mamier, G., et al.: Stuttgart Neural Network Simulator, User Manual, Version 4.2, Univ. Stuttgart, Institute for parallel and distributed systems, Wilhelm-Schickard-Institut, Univ. Tübingen, http://www-ra.informatik.uni-tuebingen.de/SNNS/
Mashor, M.Y., Sulaiman, S.N.: Recognition of Noisy Numerals using Neural Network, Center for Electr. Intelligent System, Univ. Sains Malaysia. AU Journal of technology (September 2001), http://www.journal.au.edu/ijcim/2001/sep01/menu.html
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Lackes, R., Börgermann, C., Dirkmorfeld, M. (2009). Forecasting the Price Development of Crude Oil with Artificial Neural Networks. In: Omatu, S., et al. Distributed Computing, Artificial Intelligence, Bioinformatics, Soft Computing, and Ambient Assisted Living. IWANN 2009. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 5518. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02481-8_36
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02481-8_36
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-02480-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-02481-8
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)