Abstract
The main determinant of many types of software-related investments is the amount of development effort required. The ability of software clients to make investment decisions based on cost estimates is consequently strongly tied to the software providers’ ability to estimate the effort accurately. Similarly, the ability of project managers to plan a project and ensure efficient development frequently depends on accurate effort estimates. The importance of accurate effort estimates is illustrated by the findings of a 2007 survey of more than 1,000 IT professionals. The survey reports that two out of the three-most-important causes of IT project failure were related to poor resource estimation, that is, inaccurate effort estimates.
Chapter PDF
References
G. de Venter and D. Michayluk. An insight into overconfidence in the forecasting abilities of financial advisors. Australian Journal of Management, 32(3):545–557, Mar 2008.
J. S. Armstrong. Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners, 2001.
D. V. Budescu and N. Du. Coherence and consistency of investors’ probability judgments. Management Science, 53(11):1731–1744, Nov 2007.
C. H. Castore and J. C. Roberts. Subjective estimates of own relative riskiness and risk taking following a group discussion. Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance, 7(1):107–120, Feb. 1972.
R. M. Dawes, D. Faust, and P. E. Meehl. Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science, 243:1668–1674, 1989.
T. DeMarco. Controlling software projects. Yourdon Press, 1982.
J. J. Dolado. On the problem of the software cost function. Information and Software Technology, 43(1):61–72, Jan. 2001.
T. Dybå, B. Kitchenham, and M. Jørgensen. Evidence-based software engineering for practitioners. IEEE Software, 22(1):58–65, 2005.
J. S. Edwards and T. T. Moores. A conflict between the use of estimating and planning tools in the management of information systems. European Journal of Information Systems, 3(2):139–147, 1994.
S. Epstein. Cognitive-experiental self-theory: An integrative theory of personality. The relational self: Theoretical convergences in psychoanalysis and social psychology. Guilford Press, 1991.
L. Farr. Factors that affect the cost of computer programming v.1. Technical report, united states air force Electronic Systems Division, L.G. Hanscom Field, Bedford, Massachusetts, jul 1964.
P. Goodwin. Enhancing judgmental sales forecasting: The role of laboratory research. Forecasting with judgment, pages 91–112. John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
P. Goodwin. Improving the voluntary integration of statistical forecasts and judgment. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(1):85–99, Jan - March 2000.
S. Grimstad and M. Jørgensen. A framework for the analysis of software cost estimation accuracy. Proceedings of ISESE, pages 58–65, 2006.
S. Grimstad and M. Jørgensen. Inconsistency in expert judgment-based estimates of software development effort. Journal of Systems and Software, 80(11):1770–1777, 2007.
S. Grimstad, M. Jørgensen, and K. Moløkken-Østvold. Software effort estimation terminology: The tower of babel. Information and Software Technology, 48(4):302–310, 2006.
W. M. Grove, D. H. Zald, B. S. Lebow, B. E. Snitz, and C. Nelson. Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis. Psychological assessment, 12(1):18–30, 2000.
K. HalvorTeigen. More than x is a lot: Pragmatic implicatures of one-sided uncertainty intervals. Social Cognition, 26(4):379–400, Aug 2008.
K. R. Hammond, R. M. Hamm, J. Grassia, and T. Pearson. Direct comparison of the efficacy of intuitive and analytical cognition in expert judgment. IEEE Transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics, 17(5):753–770, Sep - Oct 1987.
J. Hannay and M. Jørgensen. The role of deliberate artificial design elements in software engineering experiments. to appear in IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 2008.
F. J. Heemstra and R. J. Kusters. Function point analysis: Evaluation of a software cost estimation model. European Journal of Information Systems, 1(4):223–237, Dec. 1991.
J. Hihn and H. Habib-Agahi. Cost estimation of software intensive projects: A survey of current practices. Proceedings of International Conference on Software Engineering, pages 276–287, 13-16 May 1991.
M. Jørgensen. A critique of how we measure and interpret the accuracy of software development effort estimation. Proceedings of 1st International Workshop on Software Productivity Analysis and Cost Estimation, pages 15–22, 2007.
M. Jørgensen. A preliminary model of judgment-based project software effort predictions. Proceedings of IRNOP VIII, pages 661–668, 2006.
M. Jørgensen. How to avoid selecting providers with bids based on over-optimistic cost estimates. To appear in IEEE Software, May/June, 2009.
M. Jørgensen. Selection of effort estimation strategies. submitted to International Journal of Forecasting, 2008.
M. Jørgensen. Estimation of software development work effort: Evidence on expert judgment and formal models. International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3):449–462, 2007.
M. Jørgensen. The effects of the format of software project bidding processes. International Journal of Project Management, 24(6):522–528, 2006.
M. Jørgensen. The "magic step" of judgment-based software effort estimation. Proceedings of International Conference on Cognitive Economics, pages 105–114, 2005.
M. Jørgensen. Practical guidelines for expert-judgment-based software effort estimation. IEEE Software, 22(3):57–63, 2005.
M. Jørgensen. A review of studies on expert estimation of software development effort. Journal of Systems and Software, 70(1-2):37–60, feb 2004.
M. Jørgensen. Regression models of software development effort estimation accuracy and bias. Empirical Software Engineering, 9(4):297–314, 2004.
M. Jørgensen. Top-down and bottom-up expert estimation of software development effort. Information and Software Technology, 46(1):3–16, 2004.
M. Jørgensen. Realism in assessment of effort estimation uncertainty: it matters how you ask. Software Engineering, IEEE Transactions on, 30(4):209–217, 2004.
M. Jørgensen. How much does a vacation cost? or what is a software cost estimate? Software Engineering Notes, 28(6):5–5, 2003.
M. Jørgensen and B. Boehm. Software development effort estimation: Formal models or expert judgment? IEEE Software, (Jan/Feb), 2009.
M. Jørgensen and G. Carelius. An empirical study of software project bidding. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 30(12):953–969, 2004.
M. Jørgensen, B. Faugli, and T. M. Gruschke. Characteristics of software engineers with optimistic predictions. Journal of Systems and Software, 80(9):1472–1482, 2007.
M. Jørgensen and S. Grimstad. Avoiding irrelevant and misleading information when estimating development effort. IEEE Software, May/June:78–83, 2008.
M. Jørgensen and S. Grimstad. Judgment-updating among software professionals. Proceedings of The 2nd international conference on software knowledge information management and applications (SKIMA), pages 62–67, 2008.
M. Jørgensen and S. Grimstad. The impact of irrelevant and misleading information on software development effort estimates: A randomized controlled field experiment. submitted to IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 2008.
M. Jørgensen and S. Grimstad. Over-optimism in software development projects: “the winner’s curse”. Proceedings of IEEE CONIELECOMP, pages 280–285, 2005.
M. Jørgensen and T. M. Gruschke. The impact of lessons-learned sessions on effort estimation and uncertainty assessments. To appear in IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 2008.
M. Jørgensen and T. M. Gruschke. Industrial use of formal software cost estimation models: Expert estimation in disguise? Proceedings of Empirical Assessment of Software Engineering (EASE), pages 1–7, 2005.
M. Jørgensen and T. Halkjelsvik. The effects of request formats on judgment-based effort estimation. Submitted to Journal of Systems and Software, 2008.
M. Jørgensen, U. Indahl, and D. I. K. Sjøberg. Software effort estimation by analogy and "regression toward the mean". Journal of Systems and Software, 68(3):253–262, des 2003.
M. Jørgensen, B. Kitchenham, and T. Dybå. Teaching evidence-based software engineering to university students. Proceedings of 11th IEEE International Software Metrics Symposium, pages 19–22, 2005.
M. Jørgensen and K. Moløkken-Østvold. How large are software cost overruns? critical comments on the standish group’s chaos reports. Information and Software Technology, 48(4):297–301, 2006.
M. Jørgensen and K. Moløkken-Østvold. Reasons for software effort estimation error: impact of respondent role, information collection approach, and data analysis method. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 30(12):993–1007, 2004.
M. Jørgensen and K. Moløkken-Østvold. Eliminating over-confidence in software development effort estimates. Proceedings of Conference on Product Focused Software Process Improvement, pages 174–184, 2004.
M. Jørgensen and K. Moløkken-Østvold. A preliminary checklist for software cost management. Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Quality Software, pages 134–140, 2003.
M. Jørgensen and K. Moløkken-Østvold. Combination of software development effort prediction intervals: Why, when and how? Proceedings of IEEE Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering, pages 425–428, 2002.
M. Jørgensen and M. Shepperd. A systematic review of software cost estimation studies. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 33(1):33–53, 2007.
M. Jørgensen and D. I. K. Sjøberg. The impact of customer expectation on software development effort estimates. International Journal of Project Management, 22:317–325, 2004.
M. Jørgensen and D. I. K. Sjøberg. An effort prediction interval approach based on the empirical distribution of previous estimation accuracy. Information and Software Technology, 45(3):123–136, mar 2003.
M. Jørgensen and D. I. K. Sjøberg. Impact of effort estimates on software project work. Information and Software Technology, 43(15):939–948, 23 Dec. 2001.
M. Jørgensen and K. H. Teigen. Uncertainty intervals versus interval uncertainty: An alternative method for eliciting effort prediction intervals in software development projects. Proceedings of International Conference on Project Management (ProMAC), pages 343–352, 2002.
M. Jørgensen, K. H. Teigen, and K. Moløkken. Better sure than safe? over-confidence in judgement based software development effort prediction intervals. Journal of Systems and Software, 70(1-2):79–93, feb 2004.
B. Kitchenham, T. Dybå, and M. Jørgensen. Evidence-based software engineering. Proceedings of International Conference on Software Engineering (ICSE’04), pages 273–281, 2004.
J. M. Lachin, J. P. Matts, and L. J. Wei. Randomization in clinical trials: Conclusions and recommendations. Controlled Clinical Trials, 9(4):365–374, 1988.
M. Lawrence, P. Goodwin, M. O’Connor, and D. Onkal. Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(3):493–518, 2006.
S. J. Mason, J. S. Galpin, L. Goddard, N. E. Graham, and B. Rajartnam. Conditional exceedance probabilities. Monthly Weather Review, 135(2):363–372, Feb 2007.
K. Moløkken and M. Jørgensen. Expert estimation of web-development projects: Are software professionals in technical roles more optimistic than those in non-technical roles? Empirical Software Engineering, 10(1):7–30, 2005.
K. Moløkken and M. Jørgensen. A review of software surveys on software effort estimation. Proceedings of International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering, pages 223–230, 2003.
K. Moløkken-Østvold, N. C. Haugen, and H. C. Benestad. Using planning poker for combining expert estimates in software projects. To appear in Journal of Systems and Software, 2008.
K. Moløkken-Østvold and M. Jørgensen. A comparison of software project overruns – flexible vs. sequential development models. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 31(9):754–766, 2005.
K. Moløkken-Østvold and M. Jørgensen. Group processes in software effort estimation. Empirical Software Engineering, 9(4):315–334, 2004.
D. A. Moore and P. J. Healy. The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological review, 115(2):502–517, Apr 2008.
T. T. Moores and J. S. Edwards. Could large uk corporations and computing companies use software cost estimating tools? - a survey. European Journal of Information Systems, 1(5):311–319, 1992.
T. Mussweiler. Comparison processes in social judgment: Mechanisms and consequences. Psychological review, 110(3):472–489, 2003.
G. Overskeid. They should have thought about the consequences: The crisis of cognitivism and a second chance for behavior analysis. Psychological Record, 58(1):131–151, Win 2008.
D. E. Sanders and L. P. Ritzman. On knowing when to switch from quantitative to judgemental forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 11(6):27–37, 1991.
K. H. Teigen, A. M. Halberg, and K. I. Fostervold. More than, less than, or minimum, maximum: How upper and lower bounds determine subjective interval estimates. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20(2):179–201, Apr 2007.
K. H. Teigen, A. M. Halberg, and K. I. Fostervold. Single-limit interval estimates as reference points. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 21(3):383–406, Apr 2007.
Y. Trope and A. Liberman. Social hypothesis testing: Cognitive and motivational factors. Social psychology: Handbook of basic principles, pages 239–270. Guilford Press, 1996.
R. G. Webby and M. J. O’Connor. Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: A review of the literature. International Journal of Forecasting, 12(1):91–118, March 1996.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Jørgensen, M., Grimstad, S. (2010). Software Development Effort Estimation — Demystifying and Improving Expert Estimation. In: Tveito, A., Bruaset, A., Lysne, O. (eds) Simula Research Laboratory. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-01156-6_26
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-01156-6_26
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-01155-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-01156-6
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)