Assessing the Accuracy of Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Models
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To demonstrate an approach that allows for the assessment of models and their accuracy, a numerical experiment was designed to generate a “control” data set and treated it as if it were “real” data. The open source spatiotemporal epidemiological modeler (STEM) was used to develop a control scenario depicting the spread of influenza in the state of Vermont; this scenario was then compared to three alternative models using such tools as root mean square differences and phase space analysis. This approach may prove helpful in responding to global pandemics and arriving at necessary policy decisions.
KeywordsSpatiotemporal data analysis Infectious disease spread Epidemiological models Assessment Validation
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