Whither Turkey? Greece's Aegean Options

The European Union (EU)-Turkey accession talks are taking place against a backdrop of a very sceptical EU public, as well as an elite majority that is less tolerant of Turkey’s European prospects than in the past. This is why Turkey negotiates its European future under the most stringent terms any candidate has ever had to endure in the history of European integration and why, to have any chance for success, Turkey will have to win the hearts and minds of EU citizens. This must be done, however, by a country in a time of peril. Domestic developments in Turkey seem to be of a structural nature, threatening age-old certainties in the country. For Greece, the challenge is enormous as well. Real progress by Ankara in this context would anchor Turkey ever more closely to Europe and lend greater stability to Greek-Turkish relations, leading eventually to a full normalisation of relations between the two countries. The mainstream argument in Greece is that there is a need - in both countries - for a more ‘strategic’ approach towards each other. Both countries have a longer-term strategic interest in seeing Turkey’s EU vocation succeed. Turkey’s successful adjustment to Europe has the potential to alter Greece’s perception of threat, and foster political and economic reform in a Turkey reassured about its place in Europe.