Abstract
The life expectancy implied by current age-specific mortality rates is calculated with life table methods that are among the oldest and most fundamental tools of demography. We demonstrate that these conventional estimates of period life expectancy are affected by an undesirable “tempo effect.” The tempo effect is positive when the mean age at death is rising and negative when the mean is declining. Estimates of the effect for females in three countries with high and rising life expectancy range from 1.6 yr in the U.S. and Sweden to 2.4 yr in France for the period 1980–1995.
©2003 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 100(23):13127–13133. http://www.pnas.org/. Reprinted with permission
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Arthur, W. B. and Vaupel, J. W. (1984). Some general relationships in population dynamics. Population Index, 50:214–226.
Bennett, N. and Horiuchi, S. (1981). Estimating the completeness of death registration in a closed population. Population Index, 47:207–221.
Bongaarts, J. and Feeney, G. (1998). On the quantum and tempo of fertility. Population and Development Review, 24:271–291.
Bongaarts, J. and Feeney, G. (2002). How long do we live. Population and Development Review, 28:13–29.
Council of Europe (2001). Recent demographic developments in Europe 2001. Council of Europe Publishing, Strasbourg, France.
Hajnal, J. (1947). The analysis of birth statistics in the light of the recent international recovery of the birth-rate. Population Studies, 1:137–164.
Hajnal, J. (1953). Age at marriage and proportions marrying. Population Studies, 7:111–136.
McKendrick, A. G. (1926). Applications of mathematics to medical problems. Proceedings of the Edinburgh Mathematical Society, 40:98–130.
Preston, S. H. and Coale, A. J. (1982). Age structure, growth, attrition, and accession: A new synthesis. Population Index, 48:217–259.
Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., and Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell, Malden, MA.
Ryder, N. B. (1956). Problems of trend determination during a transition in fertility. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 34:5–21.
Ryder, N. B. (1964). The process of demographic translation. Demography, 1:74–82.
Ryder, N. B. (1980). Components of temporal variations in American fertility. In Demographic Patterns in Developed Societies, pages 15–54. Taylor & Francis, London.
Trucco, E. (1965a). Mathematical models for cellular systems. The Von Foerster equation. Bulletin of Mathematical Biophysics, 27:285–304.
Trucco, E. (1965b). Mathematical models for cellular systems. The Von Foerster equation. Bulletin of Mathematical Biophysics, 27:449–470.
United Nations (1990). Patterns of first marriage. United Nations, New York.
Vaupel, J. W. (2002). Life Expectancy at Current Rates vs. Current Conditions: A Reflexion Stimulated by Bongaarts and Feeneys “How Long Do We Live?”. Demographic Research, 7:365–377.
Von Foerster, H. (1959). Some remarks on changing populations. In Stohlman, F., editor, The Kinetics of Cellular Proliferation, pages 382–407. Grune and Stratton, New York.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2008 Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Bongaarts, J., Feeney, G. (2008). Estimating mean lifetime. In: Barbi, E., Vaupel, J.W., Bongaarts, J. (eds) How Long Do We Live?. Demographic Research Monographs. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78520-0_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78520-0_2
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-78519-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-78520-0
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and LawSocial Sciences (R0)