Model-based method for the assessment of global change in the nature—Society system

Abstract

Numerous problems arising from the interaction between nature and society are considered by various authors (Adamenko and Kondratyev, 1999; Bartsev et al., 2003; Degermendzhi and Bartsev, 2003; Gorshkov et al., 2000; Kondratyev. 1990, Kondratyev. 1992, Kondratyev. 2002, Kondratyev. 2004a; Kondratyev et al., 2003a, Kondratyev et al., 2003b, Kondratyev et al., 2003c, Kondratyev et al., 2004a, Kondratyev et al., 2004b, Kondratyev et al., 2006b). The growing number of published works dedicated to global environmental change leads to the realization that protection of the natural environment has become an urgent problem. The question of working out the principles underlying coevolution of human beings and nature is being posed with ever-increasing persistence. Scientists in many countries are making attempts to find ways of formulating laws governing human processes acting on the environment. Numerous national and international programs of biosphere and climate studies contribute to the quest for means of resolving the confliet between human society and nature. However, attempts to find efficient methods of regulating human activity on the global scale encounter many difficulties. The major difficulty is the absence of an adequate knowledge base pertaining to climatic and biospheric processes as well as the largely incomplete state of the databases concerning global processes occurring in the atmosphere, in the ocean, and on land. Another difficulty is the inability of modern science to formulate the requirements that must be met by the global databases necessary for reliable evaluation of the state of the environment and forecasting its development for sufficiently long time intervals.