Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Soft Computing Applications in Industry pp 207–224Cite as

Statistical Forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: An Enduring Challenge

  • Chapter

Part of the book series: Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing ((STUDFUZZ,volume 226))

Introduction

Forecasting All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR), one or more seasons in advance, has been an elusive goal for hydrologists, meteorologists, and astrologers alike. In spite of advances in data collection facilities, improvements in computational capabilities, and progress in our understanding of the physics of the monsoon system, our ability to forecast AISMR has remained more or less unchanged in past several decades. On one hand, physically based numerical prediction models that are considered a panacea for daily weather forecasting have not evolved to a stage where they can realistically predict or even simulate annual variations in Indian monsoon. On the other hand, statistical models that have traditionally been used for making operational forecasts have failed in forecasting extreme monsoon rainfall years. It has been suggested that, in future, physically based models may improve to an extent where they can produce useful forecasts. However, until then, it would be prudent to develop statistical forecast models using state-of-the-art soft-computing techniques.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Ambroise, C., McLachlan, G.J.: Selection bias in gene extraction on the basis of microarray gene-expression data. Proceedings of National Academy of Science USA 99(10), 6562–6566 (2002), doi:10.1073/pnas.102102699

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Barnston, A.G., et al.: Improving seasonal prediction practices through attribution of climate variability. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86(1), 59–72 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berger, J.O.: Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis, 2nd edn. Springer, New York (1985)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Bhalme, H.N., Rahalkar, S.S., Sikder, A.B.: Tropical Quasi-Biennial Oscillation of the 10-mb wind and Indian monsoon rainfall-implications for forecasting. International Journal of Climatology 7(4), 345–353 (1987), doi:10.1002/joc.3370070403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bishop, C.M.: Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. In: Information Science and Statistics, 1st edn., Springer, New York, USA (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bjerknes, J.: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equitorial Pacific. Monthly Weather Review 97(3), 163–172 (1969)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cannon, A.J., McKendry, I.G.: Forecasting all-India summer monsoon rainfall using regional circulation principal components: a comparison between neural network and multiple regression models. International Journal of Climatology 19(14), 1561–1578 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Charney, J.G., Shukla, J.: Predictability of monsoon. In: Lighthill, J., Pearce, R.P. (eds.) Monsoon Dynamics, pp. 99–108. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1981)

    Google Scholar 

  • Clark, C.O., Cole, J.E., Webster, P.J.: Indian ocean SST and Indian summer rainfall: Predictive relationships and their decadal variability. Journal of Climate 13(14), 2503–2519 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fasullo, J.: A stratified diagnosis of the Indian monsoon – Eurasian snow cover relationship. Journal of Climate 17(5), 1110–1122 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil, S., et al.: On forecasting the Indian summer monsoon: the intriguing season of 2002. Current Science 83(4), 394–403 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil, S. et al.: Extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, ENSO and equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters 31, L2213 (2004), doi: 10.1029/2004GL019733

    Google Scholar 

  • Goswami, B.N., et al.: A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L02706 (2006), doi: 10.1029/2005GL024803

    Google Scholar 

  • Horel, J.D.: A rotated principal component analysis of the interannual variability of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height field. Monthly Weather Review 109(10), 2080–2092 (1981)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iyengar, R.N., Raghu, K.S.: Intrinsic mode functions and a strategy for forecasting Indian monsoon rainfall. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 90(1–2), 17–36 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khalil, A., et al.: Sparse Bayesian learning machine for real-time management of reservoir releases. Water Resources Research 41, W11401 (2005), doi: 10.1029/2004WR003891

    Google Scholar 

  • Khalil, A.F., et al.: Multiobjective analysis of chaotic dynamic systems with sparse learning machines. Advances in Water Resources 29(1), 72–88 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kishtawal, C.M., et al.: Forecasting summer rainfall over India using genetic algorithm. Geophysical Research Letters 30(23), 2203 (2003), doi: 10.1029/2003GL018504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kothawale, D.R., Munot, A.A., Borgaonkar, H.P.: Temperature variability over the Indian Ocean and its relationship with Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Theoretical and Applied Climatolog (in press, 2007), doi: 10.1007/s00704-006-0291-z

    Google Scholar 

  • Kripalani, R.H., Kulkarni, A., Sabade, S.S.: Western Himalayan snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall: A re-examination with INSAT and NCEP/NCAR data. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 74(1), 1–18 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan, R., Sugi, M.: Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Climate Dynamics 21(3), 233–242 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kucharski, F., Molteni, F., Yoo, J.H.: SST forcing of decadal Indian monsoon rainfall variability. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L03709 (2006), doi: 10.1029/2005GL025371

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar, K.K., Rajagopalan, B., Cane, M.A.: On the weakening relationship between the Indian Monsoon and ENSO. Science 284(5423), 2156–2159 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar, K.K., et al.: Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El-Niño. Science 314(5796), 115–119 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau, K.M., Kim, K.M., Shen, S.S.P.: Potential predictability of seasonal precipitation over the United States from canonical ensemble correlation predictions. Geophysical Research Letters 29(7), 1097 (2002), doi: 10.1029/2001GL014263

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li, T., et al.: On the relationship between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and Asian summer monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters 28(14), 2843–2846 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li, Y., Campbell, C., Tipping, M.E.: Bayesian automatic relevance determination algorithms for classifying gene expression data. Bioinformatics 18(10), 1332–1339 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Minka, T.P.: Automatic choice of dimensionality for PCA. In: Leen, T.K., Dietterich, T.G., Tresp, V. (eds.) Advances in neural information processing systems, vol. 13, pp. 598–604. MIT Press, Cambridge (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  • Monahan, A.H.: Nonlinear principal component analysis: Tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature and sea level pressure. Journal of Climate 14(2), 219–233 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mooley, D.A., Munot, A.A.: Relationships between Indian summer monsoon and pacific SST/SOI tendency from winter to spring and their stability. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 56(3), 187–197 (1997)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls, N.: Predicting Indian monsoon rainfall from sea-surface temperature in the Indonesia-north Australia area. Nature 306(5943), 576–577 (1983)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls, N.: All-India summer monsoon rainfall and sea surface temperatures around Northern Australia and Indonesia. Journal of Climate 8(5), 1463–1467 (1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pai, D.S., Rajeevan, M.: Empirical prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with different lead periods based on global SST anomalies. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 92(1), 33–43 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parthasarathy, B., Munot, A.A., Kothawale, D.R.: All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 49(4), 217–224 (1994)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prasad, K.D., Singh, S.V.: Possibility of predicting Indian monsoon rainfall on reduced spatial and temporal scales. Journal of Climate 5(11), 1357–1361 (1992)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan, M.: Winter surface pressure anomalies over Eurasia and Indian summer monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters 29(10), 1454 (2002), doi: 10.1029/2001GL014363

    Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan, M., Guhathakurta, P., Thapliyal, V.: New models for long range forecasts of summer monsoon rainfall over North West and Peninsular India. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 73(3), 211–225 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan, M., et al.: New statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India. Climate Dynamics 28(7–8), 813–828 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao, K.G., Goswami, B.N.: Interannual variations of sea surface temperature over the Arabian Sea and the Indian monsoon: A new perspective. Monthly Weather Review 116(3), 558–568 (1988)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayner, N.A., et al.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. Journal of Geophysical Research 108(D14), 4407,1–37 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robock, A., et al.: Land surface conditions over Eurasia and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Journal of Geophysical Research 108(D4), 4131,1–17 (2003), doi: 10.1029/2002JD002286

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roweis, S.T.: EM algorithms for PCA and SPCA. In: Jordan, M.I., Kearns, M.J., Solla, S.A. (eds.) Advances in neural information processing systems, vol. 10, pp. 626–632. MIT Press, Cambridge (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  • Sahai, A.K., et al.: Long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from global SST evolution. Climate Dynamics 20(7), 855–863 (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  • Scholkopf, B., Smola, A.J.: Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. In: Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning, 1st edn., MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  • Shabbar, A., Barnston, A.G.: Skill of seasonal climate forecasts in Canada using canonical correlation analysis. Monthly Weather Review 124(10), 2370–2385 (1996)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, T.M., Reynolds, R.W.: Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data. Journal of Climate 16(10), 1495–1510 (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  • Srivastava, A.K., Rajeevan, M., Kulkarni, R.: Teleconnection of OLR and SST anomalies over Atlantic Ocean with Indian summer monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters 29(8), 1284 (2002), doi: 10.1029/2001GL013837

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tipping, M.E.: Sparse Bayesian learning and the Relevance vector machine. Journal of Machine Learning Research 1(3), 211–244 (2001)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Tipping, M.E., Bishop, C.M.: Probabilistic principal component analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 61(3), 611–622 (1999)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Tipping, M.E., Faul, A.: Fast marginal likelihood maximization for sparse Bayesian models. In: Bishop, C.M., Frey, B.J. (eds.) Proceedings of the ninth international workshop on artificial intelligence and statistics, January 3–6, Key West, Florida, 8 pages (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  • Tukey, J.W.: Exploratory data analysis. Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, USA (1977)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • van den Dool, H.M., Saha, S., Johansson, A.: Empirical orthogonal teleconnections. Journal of Climate 13, 1421–1435 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vautard, R., Pires, C., Plaut, G.: Long-range atmospheric predictability using Space-Time principal components. Monthly Weather Review 124(2), 288–307 (1996)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47906, USA

    Shivam Tripathi & Rao S. Govindaraju

Authors
  1. Shivam Tripathi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Rao S. Govindaraju
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Bhanu Prasad

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Tripathi, S., Govindaraju, R.S. (2008). Statistical Forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: An Enduring Challenge. In: Prasad, B. (eds) Soft Computing Applications in Industry. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing, vol 226. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-77465-5_11

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-77465-5_11

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-77464-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-540-77465-5

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation