Early in 1979 inflation rate in the United States reached 10% and there were no signs of let up on the horizon; indeed, it would reach 14% in 1980 before subsiding (Fig. 9.1). If one relied on estimates of the Phillips curve, another Great Depression would be needed to get rid of inflation. Past expansionary policies were bearing fruit.
We suffer from the longest and one of the worst sustained inflations in our national history. It distorts our economic decisions, penalizes thrift and crushes the struggling young and the fixed-income elderly alike. It threatens to shatter the lives of millions of our people.
The inaugural speech of President Ronald Reagan , January 20, 1981
Every empirical study rests on a theoretical framework, on a set of tentative hypotheses that the evidence is designed to test or to adumbrate. … That framework is the quantity theory of money—a theory that has taken many different forms and traces back to the very beginning of systematic thinking about economic matters. It has probably been “tested” with quantitative data more extensively than any other set of propositions in formal economics—unless it be the negatively sloping demand curve.
Milton Friedman . “A Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis”
But down these mean streets a man must go who is not himself mean, who is neither tarnished nor afraid.
Raymond Chandler, “The Simple Art of Murder”
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Notes
- 1.
Robert J. Samuelson recounts the history of inflation of the 1960s and 1970s, which was brought down in the 1980s and discusses its transforming effects on the American society in The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath, 2008.
- 2.
Even today in some countries, usually those prone to conspiracy theories, the idea of imported inflation is frequently floated to deflect the attention of the population from the government’s mismanagement of the economy.
- 3.
Although we start with Fisher ’s equation, the theory and the equation have a much longer history dating back to David Hume and Copernicus.
- 4.
The Federal Reserve defines money in three different ways: M1 consists of currency, travelers checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits; M2 is equal to M1 plus retail money market mutual funds, and savings and small time deposits. In the past the Fed defined M3 to consist of M2 plus large time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), euro-dollars, and institutions’ money market mutual funds. In recent years the Fed has stopped compiling M3.
- 5.
Later in this chapter we discuss the term structure of interest rates, that is, the connection between rates for bonds with different maturities. In general rates are connected through arbitrage.
- 6.
Christopher Crowe and Ellen E. Meade (2007), pp. 69–90.
- 7.
A good reading on this subject is Ben Bernanke and Frederic Mishkin (1997), pp. 97–116.
- 8.
For more on the subject of monetarism see J. Bradford De Long (2000), pp. 83–94.
- 9.
Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott (1977), pp. 473–491. See also Allan Drazen (2000), Part II for a more extensive discussion of the subject.
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Dadkhah, K. (2009). Money, Monetary Policy, and Monetarism . In: The Evolution of Macroeconomic Theory and Policy. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-77008-4_9
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