Abstract
Scenarios are almost invariably used in the analysis and assessment of environmental change, particularly if the aim is to inform policy or support decision-making. Scenarios often drive the conclusions of such studies. It is therefore important to understand what scenarios are; to be able to distinguish between the good and the bad; and, from this understanding, to improve the scenarios. This chapter contributes to that, with a particular focus on economic scenarios. The focus is on understanding rather than technical detail.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Barrow RJ, Sala-i-Martin X (1995) Economic Growth, McGrawHill, New York
Birdsall N, Kelley AC, Sinding SW (eds) (2001) Population Matters — Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World Oxford. University Press, Oxford
Boehringer C, Löschel A (eds) (2003) Empirical Modeling of the Economy and the Environment. Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg New York
Brakman S, Garretsen H, van Marrewijk C (2001) An Introduction to Geographical Economics — Trade, Location and Growth. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK
Dalton MG, O’Neill B, Prskawetz A, Jiang L, Pitkin J (forthcoming) Population Aging and Future Carbon Emissions in the United States. Energy Economics
Ericksen NJ (1975) Scenario Methodology in Natural Hazards Research. Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, NSF–RA–E–75–010
Fujita M, Krugman P, Venables AJ (1999) The Spatial Economy — Cities, Regions, and International Trade. MIT Press, Cambridge London
Funke M, Strulik H (2000) On endogenous growth with physical capital, human capital and product variety. Europ Econ Rev 44:491–515
Galor O, Weil DN (1999) From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth. Am Econ Rev 89,2:150–154
Galor O, Weil DN (1996) The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth. Am Econ Rev 86,3:374–387
Glimcher PW (2003) Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain — The Science of Neuroeconomics. MIT Press, Cambridge London
Grübler A (1990) Rise and Fall of Infrastructures: Dynamics of Evolution and Technological Change in Transport. Physica Verlag, Heidelberg
IEA (2005) World Energy Statistics and Balances, International Energy Agency, http://hermia.sourceoecd.com/vl=6413579/cl=13/nw= 1 /rpsv/ statistic/s35_about.htm?jnlissn= 16834240
IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis — Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambrige University Press, Cambridge
Lempert RJ, Nakicenovic N, Sarewitz D, Schlesinger ME (2004) Characterizing climate-change uncertainties for decision-makers. Clim Change 65:1–9
Lindmark M (2004) Patterns of Historical CO2 Intensity Transitions among High and Low Income Countries. Explor in Econ Hist 41:426–447
Maddison A (1998) Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run. OECD, Paris
Maddison A (2001) The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. OECD Publications, Paris
Nakicenovic N Swart RJ (eds) (2001) IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Cambrigde University Press, Cambridge
Nakicenovic N, Victor N, Morita T (1998) Emissions Scenarios Database and Review of Scenarios. Mitig and Adapt Strategies for Glob Change 3,2–4:95–131
Postma Th JBM, Liebl F (2005) How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool? Technol Forecasting and Soc Change 72:161–173
Romer D (1996) Advanced Macroeconomics. McGraw-Hill, New York
Samuelson PA, Nordhaus WD, Sutton L (ed) (2001) Macroeconomics. 17th ed, McGraw-Hill
Solow RM (1987) Growth Theory — An Exposition (The Radcliffe Lectures Delivered in the University of Warwick 1969, Nobel Prize Lecture 1987). Oxford University Press, New York
Strzepek KM, Yates DN, Yohe GW, Tol RSJ, Mader N (2001) Constructing “not implausible” climate and economic scenarios for Egypt. Integr Assessm 2:139–157
Tol RSJ (2002) New Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II: Dynamic Estimates. Env and Resource Econ 21,1:135–160
Tol RSJ, Pacala SW, Socolow RH (2006) Understanding long-term energy use and carbon emissions in the USA. Research unit Sustainability and Global Change FNU-100, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg
Tol RSJ, Yohe GW (2007) The Weakest Link Hypothesis for Adaptive Capacity: An Empirical Test. Glob Env Change 17:218–227
Tschirhart J (2000) General Equilibrium of an Ecosystem. J Theor Biol 203:13–32
van der Eng P (2002) Indonesia’s Growth Performance in the Twentieth Century. In: Maddison A, Prasada Rao DS, Shepherd WF (2002) The Asian Economies in the Twentieth Century, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham
vanHeerden J, Gerlagh R, Blignaut JN, Horridge M, Hess S, Mabugu R, Mabugu M (2006) Searching for Triple Dividends in South Africa: Fighting CO2 Pollution and Poverty while Promoting Growth. Energy J 27,2:113–141
vanNotten PhWF, Sleegers AM, van Asselt MBA (2005) The future shocks: On discontinuity and scenario development. Technol Forecasting and Soc Change 72:175–194
Weibull JW (1995) Evolutionary Game Theory MIT Press, Cambridge
WRI (2005) EarthTrends Environmental Information. http://earthtrends.wri.org/
Yohe GW (1991) Selecting Interesting Scenarios with which to Analyze Policy Response to Potential Climate Change. Clim Res 1:169–177
Yohe GW, Tol RSJ (2002) Indicators for Social and Economic Coping Capacity — Moving Towards a Working Definition of Adaptive Capacity. Glob Env Change:12, 1:25–40
Yohe GW, Jacobsen M, Gapotchenko T (1999) Spanning “Not-Implausible” Futures to Assess Relative Vulnerability to Climate Change and Climate Variability. Glob Env Change 9,3:233–250
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Tol, R.S.J. (2008). Economic Scenarios for Global Change. In: von Storch, H., Tol, R.S.J., Flöser, G. (eds) Environmental Crises. GKSS School of Environmental Research. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75896-9_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75896-9_3
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-75895-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-75896-9
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)