Using Simulation Modelling as a Policy Option in Coping with Agrometeorological Risks and Uncertainties

Abstract

Agricultural systems are largely dependent on weather and climate, then management and planning decisions are made in condition of risk or uncertainty due to the high level of complexity of the agricultural systems. Despite the important advances in technology over the last decades, many production factors are not well defined and they are outside of the farmer control (Orlandini and Cappugi 2001). The lack of precise information increases the level of uncertainty in farm management. To overcome these problems, farmers increased the level of energy and chemical inputs above the necessary requirements with the aim of decreasing the impacts of the variability of agricultural systems. Unfortunately, the consequence of this strategy was the increasing of environmental impact and production costs without obtaining the expected goal (Travis et al. 1992). A solution to interrupt this negative trend is to substitute expensive and pollutant chemical and energy inputs with elaborated information of high quality. In this way it is possible to decrease the risk of the uncertainties of decision making and thus to minimise the application of excessive inputs and increase the potential income (Maracchi 2001).