Perspectives on the History of Seismic Risk Assessment

Abstract

Each of the following authors brings his own distinguished viewpoint on the history and future directions for [seismic] risk assessment. Robert Whitman focuses on the lessons learned from regional seismic risk assessments, including the need for clearly defined objectives for successful outcomes; accounting for user needs in loss estimates; assessing uncertainty; including lifelines in analyses; and developing a meaningful inventory prior to analysis. Amr Elnashai extends the history of scientific inquiry into earthquakes back to the 1600’s and fills in some important events, while emphasizing how Europe, Japan, and the United States interacted in the development of seismic research and building codes. Finally, Dennis Mileti urges practitioners to take sociological perspectives into account, as losses that extend beyond traditionally assessed risk are harder to quantify, but no less important.