Representation and Propagation of Uncertainty Using the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence

Abstract

This chapter collects fragments from current research to form a coherent framework for uncertainty representation and propagation in the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence (DST). While there are some aspects of DST that have been brought into practice, many other methods important in probabilistic modeling, such as uncertainty measures and sensitivity analyses were only proposed but not transferred to real-world problems. Especially in the field of dependability prediction, the application of DST is still in its fledgling stages. Hence, the purpose of this section is not only to describe the state of the art but to present and introduce new tools necessary for a DST-based uncertainty analysis in a dependability scenario. All methods described are implemented in an open source toolbox (Imprecise Probability Toolbox for MATLAB, [103]).