Bluntly stated, it does not seem possible for anybody to predict the future, be that of an individual person, of an industry or of an entire economy. We are occasionally reminded of this, as in the sudden emergence of the world oil crisis of 1973 which hit the western economies unprepared, an episode which apparently nobody had anticipated. Anyone trying to determine the future is faced with this conundrum: it really cannot be done, yet it is necessary to know and must be attempted nonetheless.
We must start out with the premise that forecasting is not a respectable human activity and not worthwhile beyond the shortest periods. Strategic planning is necessary precisely because we cannot forecast.
Drucker, Peter “Management, Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices” Harper & Row, New York, 1974, p. 124.
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© 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Winkler, O.W. (2009). Longitudinal Analysis, Part 2 –Looking to the Future. In: Interpreting Economic and Social Data. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68721-4_6
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