Advertisement

Demographic Analysis

Chapter
  • 5.1k Downloads

Abstract

Planning for the future requires, to some extent, making projections based on past observations The U.S. Census Bureau provides, as a routine procedure, national and state-level population projections. State governments, often in cooperation with an external agency such as a university, do more geographically focused population analyses and projections. For example, the Urban Studies Institute at the University of Louisville, part of the Kentucky State Data Center (KSDC), is responsible for the periodical projection of future population trends at the state and county-level and for selected cities in Kentucky. Dealing with the uncertainty of future estimated births, deaths, and migration patterns, the institute offers three simultaneous population projections at low, middle and high growth rates. Additionally, the institute makes a variety of past and present population estimates available online. For more geographically detailed population projections and estimates, local government agencies, such as city planning departments or county planning commissions, engage in all sorts of methods to evaluate past and present demographic trends.

Keywords

Population Projection Demographic Analysis Average Annual Percent Change Extrapolation Model National Vital Statistics Report 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Armstrong, J.S. 1985. Long-range Forecasting: From Crystall Ball to Computer. 2nd. ed. New York, NY: John Wiley.Google Scholar
  2. Batie, Sandra. 1989. Sustainable development: challenges to the profession of agricultural economics. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1,083–1,101.Google Scholar
  3. Boone County, Kentucky. 2004. Official Website. Available online from http://wwwboonecountyky.org/. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  4. Bowley, A. L. 1924. Birth and population in Great Britain. The Economic Journal, 34: 188–192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Carman, E. 1895. The probability of a cessation of the growth of population in England and Wales during the next century. The Economist Journal, 5: 506–515.Google Scholar
  6. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). 2004. The World Factbook: United States. Internet; Available from http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/us.html. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  7. Daily, Gretchen C. and Paul R. Ehrlich. 1992. Population, Sustainability, and Earth’s Carrying Capacity: A Framework for Estimating Population Sizes and Lifestyles that Could Be Sustained without Undermining Future Generations. Available online from http://dieoff.org/ page 112.htm. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  8. Daly, Herman E. and John B. Cobb, Jr. 1989. For the Common Good. Boston, MA: Beacon Press.Google Scholar
  9. Gujarati, Damodar N. 1995. Basic Econometrics. 3rd. ed. New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc.Google Scholar
  10. Hamilton, C. and J. Perry. 1962. A short method for projecting population by age from one decennial census to another. Social Forces, 41: 163–170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Kentucky State Data Center. 2003. Kentucky Population Estimates: Intercensal Population Estimates, 1991–1999. Available online from http://ksdc.louisville.edu/kpr/popest/ ice9000.xls. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  12. Kentucky State Data Center. 2003. Kentucky Population Projections. Available online from http://ksdc.louisville.edu/Projections2003.htm. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  13. Kentucky State Data Center. 2003. Kentucky Population Projections: Assumptions and Methodology. Available online from http://ksdc.louisville.edu/kpr/pro/assumptions.htm. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  14. Kentucky State Data Center. 2003. Kentucky Population Projections: Middle Projection Series. Available online from http://ksdc.louisville.edu/kpr/pro/MiddleSeries.xls. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  15. Kentucky State Data Center. 2003. Kentucky Population Projections: Populations 1990–2000, with Middle, Low, and High Projections 2005–2030. Available online from http://ksdc.louisville.edu/kpr/pro/SummaryTable.xls. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  16. Kentucky State Data Center. 2004. Available online from http://ksdc.louisville.edu/. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  17. Keyfitz N. 1968. An Introduction to the Mathematics of Population. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
  18. Klosterman, Richard E. 1990. Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, MD: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc.Google Scholar
  19. National Center for Health Statistics. 1999. Births and deaths: preliminary data for 1998. National Vital Statistics Report, 47(25). Available online from http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/ nvsr47/nvs47_25.pdf. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  20. National Center for Health Statistics. 2001. Births: final data for 2000. National Vital Statistics Report, 50(5). Available online from http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/ nvsr50/nvsr50_05.pdf. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  21. National Center for Health Statistics. 2002. United States life tables, 2000. National Vital Statistics Report, 51(3), Available online from http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr51/ nvsr51_03.pdf. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  22. National Center for Health Statistics. 2002. Births: preliminary data for 2002. National Vital Statistics Report, 51(11). Available online from http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/pubs/ pubd/nvsr/51/51-12.htm. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  23. National Center for Health Statistics. 2004. Available online from http://www.cdc.gov/ nchs/. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  24. Smith, Stanley K., Jeff Tayman and David A. Swanson. 2001. State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis. New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers.Google Scholar
  25. Smith, Stanley K. and Stefan Rayer. 2004. Florida Population Studies, Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), 37(2). Bulletin 138.Google Scholar
  26. U.S. Census Bureau. 2000. Fertility of American Women: June 2000 (P20–543RV). Available online from http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/p20 — 543rv.pdf. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  27. U.S. Census Bureau. 2000. Migration by Sex and Age for the Population 5 Years and Over for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: 2000 (PHC-T-23). Available online from http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/phc-t23.html. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  28. U.S. Census Bureau. 2000. Summary File 1(SF1). Available online from http://factfinder. census.gov/servlet/DTGeoSearchByListServlet?ds_name=DEC_2000_SF 1_U& state=dt. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  29. U.S. Census Bureau. 2002. State Population Estimates by Selected Age Categories and Sex: July 1, 2002. Available online from http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/2000s/ vintage_2002/ST-EST2002-ASRO-01.html. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  30. U.S. Census Bureau. 2003. Domestic Migration across Regions, Divisions, and States: 1995–2000. Available online from http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/censr-7.pdf. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  31. U.S. Census Bureau. 2004. Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Area Definitions. Available online from http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  32. U.S. Census Bureau. 2004. Population Estimates. Available online from http://www. census.gov/ popest/estimates.php. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  33. U.S. Census Bureau. 2004. Population Estimates Terms and Definitions. Available online from http://www.census.gov/popest/topics/terms/. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  34. U.S. Census Bureau. 2004. Schedule of Population and Household Projection Releases. Available online from http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/projsched.html. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  35. U.S. Census Bureau. 2004. State Population Projections. Available online from http: //www. census.gov/population/www/projections/stproj.html. Accessed September 2004.Google Scholar
  36. Whelpton. 1928. Population of the United States, 1925 to 1975. American Journal of Sociology 34: 253–270.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Tsinghua University Press, Beijing and Springer-Verlag GmbH Berlin Heidelberg 2007

Personalised recommendations