Web-Based System to True-Forecast Disease Epidemics — Case Study for Fusarium Head Blight of Wheat

Abstract

Disease forecasting has become an established component of quantitative epidemiology. The mathematics of disease dynamics is the core of several disease forecast models that have been developed in the last four decades. However, many models have not lived up to the expectations that they would play a major role and lead to a better disease management. Amongst the reasons, the presumption of a disease forecast model is that it makes projections of major events in disease development and most present forecast models do not (Seem 2001). An exciting development in this area is the possibility to use weather forecasts as input into disease models and consequently output true disease forecasts. As weather forecasts improve together with more accurate estimations of micro environmental variables useful for plant disease models, as such precipitation and leaf wetness duration, it will be possible to provide seasonal estimates of disease likelihood and forecast outbreaks. This is especially interesting for field crops for the reason that unnecessary sprays has a significant impact on production costs, and no timely applications may result in inadequate control.