Advertisement

Probabilistic Networks as Probabilistic Forecasters

  • Linda C. van der Gaag
  • Silja Renooij
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 2780)

Abstract

To establish its clinical value, a probabilistic network is typically subjected to an evaluation study using real patient data from the field of application. The results of such a study are often summarised in the percentage of correctly predicted outcomes. In this paper, we propose the use of a forecasting score as an alternative way of expressing the clinical value of a network. Such a score takes not just the predicted outcome into consideration but also the associated distribution of uncertainty. We illustrate the use and interpretation of the Brier forecasting score for a real-life probabilistic network in oncology.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. 1.
    Jensen, F.V.: An Introduction to Bayesian Networks. UCL Press, London (1996)Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    van der Gaag, L.C., Renooij, S., Witteman, C.L.M., Aleman, B.M.P., Taal, B.G.: Probabilities for a probabilistic network: A case-study in oesophageal cancer. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine 25, 123–148 (2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Panofsky, H.A., Brier, G.W.: Some Applications of Statistics to Meteorology. The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania (1968)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Linda C. van der Gaag
    • 1
  • Silja Renooij
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Information and Computing SciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands

Personalised recommendations