Probabilistic Networks as Probabilistic Forecasters

  • Linda C. van der Gaag
  • Silja Renooij
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 2780)


To establish its clinical value, a probabilistic network is typically subjected to an evaluation study using real patient data from the field of application. The results of such a study are often summarised in the percentage of correctly predicted outcomes. In this paper, we propose the use of a forecasting score as an alternative way of expressing the clinical value of a network. Such a score takes not just the predicted outcome into consideration but also the associated distribution of uncertainty. We illustrate the use and interpretation of the Brier forecasting score for a real-life probabilistic network in oncology.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Linda C. van der Gaag
    • 1
  • Silja Renooij
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Information and Computing SciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands

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