Oil Tanker Problem

Abstract

This model has been adapted from an example in [5]. The system is shown in Fig. 18.1. This figure shows one cycle for an oil tanker. Let us follow an oil tanker through one round trip starting at the unload position. This unload place is a port on the gulf coast of the US. After unloading the ship travels to the south Atlantic ocean with travel time T1 in Fig. 18.1. In this chapter unit time is measured in days. T1 will be modelled by the normal distribution. Once in the south Atlantic the ship may, or may not, experience a storm, represented as S1. The probability of a storm is p₁, so 1–p₁ is the probability of no storm. A storm causes a delay in the travel time and this delay is modelled by the normal distribution. Once out of the south Atlantic it goes around the southern tip of Africa and up the east coast to a port in the middle east. No storms are to be found there and its travel time is T2 also given by the normal distribution. Arriving at port it may, or may not, experience a waiting delay until it can load oil. This possible waiting is coded W1 and the time delay is given by a discrete probability distribution: (1) p₁₀ is the probability of zero wait; (1) p₁₁ the probability of a one day wait; and (3) p₁₂ the probability of a two day wait until docking to load oil.