Finite-Difference Simulations of the 1927 Jericho Earthquake

Abstract.

Four possible scenarios of the 1927 Jericho earthquake are tested by simulating 75 seconds of 1.5 Hz-wave propagation in a 3D model of the Dead Sea Basin (DSB) substructure. The scenarios examine the effects of various source and rupture parameters, since the original parameters could not be constrained by the sparse data gathered in 1927. The simulations are carried out using a fourth-order staggered-grid finite-difference (FD) method. Peak ground velocities and spectral accelerations (at 0.5 Hz, 1 Hz, and 1.5 Hz) are determined from the time-histories. Finally those are compared to an intensity map, which shows a considerable heterogeneous distribution of large intensities. The purpose of this study is (a) to find possible explanations for the heterogeneous intensity distribution and (b) to determine the best fitting source and rupture parameters for this event. We find the best overall agreement to correspond to scenario 2, a unilateral rupture on a vertical strike-slip fault with a fault plane of 12 $\cdot$ 12 km². The rupture starts at a depth of 7 km at the southern end of the fault and propagates with a velocity that amounts to 90% of the local shear wave speed.