Wilted Roses and Tulips: The Regression of Democratic Rule in Kyrgyzstan and Georgia

Abstract

In the mid 1990s Georgia and Kyrgyzstan were beacons of hope for democratic transition in the former Soviet Union as they witnessed economic and political liberalization in the wake of the collapse of communist rule. Yet towards the end of the decade these hopes were dashed, when early democratic gains gave way to increasing authoritarianism. When the so-called coloured revolutions swept away the semiauthoritarian governments in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan in 2003 and 2005, respectively, the hope returned that the path towards democracy would now be cleared. Yet once again disillusionment sunk in; the new rulers have frequently relied on the same nondemocratic means as their predecessors to stay in office. Combining insights from the studies of Stephen Fish as well as Steve Levitsky and Lucan Way, we argue that superpresidentialism, a weakly organized and fragmented opposition, and the adverse impact of authoritarian neighbours have stood in the way of democratization in these two countries. Nevertheless, today's Georgia is in a better position than Kyrgyzstan to cement democratic rule due to strong Western leverage.

1 The authors thank Julie George, Kim Johnson and the three anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments. The paper was completed in May 2010 and can therefore only cover the events up to this date.