Advertisement

Future Elderly Living Conditions In Europe: Demographic Insights

Chapter

Abstract

During the last three decades, low birth rates and increasing life expectancy have led to the ageing of the European population, which is expected to accelerate during the coming decades. The proportion of the population 60+ and 80+ in the 15 member states of the European Union will increase from 22.4 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively, in 2004 to about 32.4 percent and 7.5 percent in 2030. Trends are similar in Germany: between 2001 and 2035 the share of the population aged 60+ will increase from 24.1 percent to 34.4 percent and the share of over 80-year-olds will increase from 3.9 percent to 7.3 percent (Eurostat 2005, Statistisches Bundesamt 2003). In 1950, this share of people aged 60+ and 80+, respectively, was still as low as 14.0 percent and 1.0 percent in West Germany and 16.0 percent and 1.0 percent in East Germany.

Keywords

Life Expectancy Marital Status Living Arrangement Severe Disability Childless Woman 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Acker, Dominique (2004): Die Rolle der sozialen Sicherheit bei der häuslichen Pflege. Fachausschuss für Gesundheitsleistungen und Krankenversicherung; Fachausschuss für Hilfsvereine auf Gegenseitigkeit, Frankreich.Google Scholar
  2. Barkholdt, Corinna and Lasch, Vera (2004): Vereinbarkeit von Pflege und Erwerbstätigkeit. Expertise für die Sachverständigenkommission für den 5. Altenbericht der Bundesregierung, Dortmund und KasselGoogle Scholar
  3. Bebbington, A.C. (1991): The expectation of life without disability in England and Wales: 1976-88. Population Trends 66, 26–29.Google Scholar
  4. Bomsdorf, Eckart (2004); Life Expectancy in Germany until 2050, Experimental Gerontology 39(2004)159–163CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bundesministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend (2002): Vierter Bericht zur Lage der älteren Generation in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Risiken, Lebensqualität und Versorgung Hochaltriger–unter besonderer Berücksichtigung Dementieller Erkrankungen. BerlinGoogle Scholar
  6. Crimmins, E.M., Saito, Y. and Ingegneri, D. (1989): Changes in life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy in the United States. Population and Development Review 15/2, 235–267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Crimmins, E.M., Saito, Y. and Ingegneri, D. (1997): Trends in disability-free life expectancy in the United States, 1970-90. Population and Development Review 23/3, 555–572.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Council of Europe (2004): Recent demographic developments in Europe. Council of Europe Publishing F-67075 Strasbourg Cedex ISBN 92-871Google Scholar
  9. Daatland, S. O. and Herlofson, K. (2004): Family Responsibility Norms in European Countries: Contrasts and Similarities; OASISGoogle Scholar
  10. Delbès, C. and Gaymu, J. and Springer, S. (2005): The living arrangements of the older population from the past until the present day. INED, Paris; FELICIE contract no. QLK6-CT-2002-02310Google Scholar
  11. Diewald, Martin (1993): Hilfebeziehungen und soziale Differenzierung im Alter. Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie 45(1993)4: 731–754.Google Scholar
  12. Dinkel, Reiner H., Hartmann Kerstin, Lebok, Uwe (1997): Langfristige Veränderungen in der Verfügbarkeit häuslicher Unterstützungspotentiale aufgrund familiärer Strukturverschiebungen–Eine Modellrechnung. in: Gesundheitswesen 59, Sonderheft 1 S. 49–54.Google Scholar
  13. Doblhammer G., Kytir J. (2001) Compression or expansion of morbidity? Trends in Healthy-Life Expectancy of the Elderly Austrian population between 1978 and 1998, Social Science andMedicine 52, 385–391CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Ekamper, P. and vanWissen, Leo and Beets, Gijs (2005): Population scenarios of health, family and socio-economic status by age, sex and marital status, for the nine FELICIE countries over the period 2000-2030. NIDI, The Hague; FELICIE contract no. QLK6-CT-2002-02310Google Scholar
  15. Eurostat (2003): Health Statistics. Key data on health 2002. European Commission. Theme 3 Population and social conditions: 1–475.Google Scholar
  16. FELICIE team (2005): The marital status of the older population. From the past until the present day, INED, France, FELICIE contract no. QLK6-CT2002-02310Google Scholar
  17. Fries, J. F. (1989): The compression of morbidity: Near or far? Milbank Memorial Foundation Quarterly/Health and Society 67/2, 208–232.Google Scholar
  18. Gaymu, J. and Delbès, C. and Springer, S. and Binet, A. and Desesquelles, A. (2005): Synthesis report: Determinants of the living arrangements of older people in Europe INED, Paris; FELICIE contract no. QLK6-CT-2002-02310Google Scholar
  19. Gierveld J., deValk H., Blommesteijn M. (2001): Living Arrangements of Older Persons and Family Support in More Developed Countries. in: United Nations Technical meeting on Population Ageing and Living Arrangements of Older Persons: critical issues and Policy Responses, New York, Population Division, United Nations: 45 p.Google Scholar
  20. Glaser, K., Murphy, M. and Grundy, E. (1997) ‘Limiting long term illness and household structure among people aged 45 and over, Great Britain 1991’. Ageing and Society, 17, 3–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Goldman, N., Korenman, S. and Weinstein, R. (1995): ‘Marital status and health among the elderly’. Social Science andMedicine, 40(12), 1717–1730CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Gruenberg, E.M. (1977): The failure of success. Milbank Memorial Foundation Quarterly Health andSociety, 55, 3–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Grundy, Emily and Kalogirou Stamatis and Tomassini, Cecilia (2004): The future of family networks and the support of older people in Europe: Synthesised report; LSHTM, London, FELICIE contract no. QLK6-CT-2002-02310Google Scholar
  24. Grundy, Emily (2000): Living arrangements and the health of older persons in developed countries. Technical meeting on population ageing and living arrangements of older persons: critical issues and policy responses, New York.Google Scholar
  25. Grundy, E., Ahlburg, D., Ali, M., et al. (1999): Disability in Great Britain. London: HSMO, Department of Social Security (Research Report 94).Google Scholar
  26. Hahn, B. A. (1993): ‘Marital status and women’s health: the effect of economic and marital acquisitions’. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 55, 495–504.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Halsig, N. (1995): Hauptpflegepersonen in der Familie: Eine Analyse ihrer situativen Bedingungen, Belastungen und Hilfsmöglichkeiten. Zeitschrift für Gerontopsychologie und-psychiatrie 8(1995)4: 247–262Google Scholar
  28. Iacovou, Maria (2000): Explaining the living arrangements of older European women. ISER working paper 2000-08, Institute for Social and Economic Research.Google Scholar
  29. Lesthaeghe, R. (1995): The Second Demographic Transition: An Interpretation. in: Mason, K. O. and Jensen, A.-M. (eds.), Gender and Family Change in Industrialized Countries., OxfordGoogle Scholar
  30. Manton, K.G. (1982): Changing concepts of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population. Milbank Memorial Foundation Quarterly/Health and Society 60, 183–244.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Murphy, Mike and Kalogirou, Stamatis (2004): Population projections by sex and marital status and single year of age. LSE, London; FELICIE contract no. QLK6-CT 2002-02310Google Scholar
  32. Murphy, Michael J.; Grundy, Emily (2003): Mothers With Living Children And Children With Living Mothers: The Role Of Fertility And Mortality In The Period 1911–2050. Population Trends no. 112 (2003): 36–44.Google Scholar
  33. Oeppen, Jim and Vaupel, James W. (2002): Broken Limits to Human Life Expectancy Science, 296(2002): 1029–1031.Google Scholar
  34. Olshansky, S.J., Rudberg, MA., Carnes, B.A., Cassel, BA. and Brady, JA. (1991): Trading off longer life for worsening health: The expansion of morbidity hypothesis. Journal of Aging and Health 3/2, 194–216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Robine, J.M., Jagger, C., Mathers, C.D., Crimmins, E.M., Suzman, R.M. (2003): Determining Health Expectancies, West Sussex, Wiley.Google Scholar
  36. Robine, J.M., Mathers, C. and Brouard, N. (1996) Trends and differentials in disabilityfree life expectancy: Concepts, methods, and findings. In Health and mortality among elderly population, eds. G. Caselli and A.D. Lopez, pp. 182–201. Clarendon Press, Oxford.Google Scholar
  37. Robine, J.M., Romieu, I, Cambois E. (1997): Health expectancies and current research. Reviews in Clinical Gerontology 7:73–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Rowland, Donald T. (1998): Cross-National Trends in Childlessness. Working Papers in Demography No. 73, The Australian National UniversityGoogle Scholar
  39. Schnabel, Sabine; von Kistowski, Kristin; Vaupel, James W. (2005): Immer neue Rekorde und kein Ende in Sicht. Der Blick in die Zukunft lässt Deutschland grauer aussehen als viele erwarten. Demografische Forschung aus erster Hand 2(2005)2: 3.Google Scholar
  40. Statistisches Bundesamt (2005): 2. Bericht: Pflege im Rahmen der Pflege Versicherung. Ländervergleich: Pflegebedürftige. Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden.Google Scholar
  41. Statistisches Bundesamt (2003): Bevölkerung Deutschlands bis 2050, 10. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung. Statistisches Bundesamt, WiesbadenGoogle Scholar
  42. Sullivan, D. F. (1971): A Single Index of Mortality and Morbidity, in: HSMHA Health Reports, Vol. 86, April 1971, pp. 347–354Google Scholar
  43. Tinker, Anthea; Askham, Janet; Hancock, Ruth; Mueller, Ganka; Stuchbury, Rachel (2000): Eighty-Five Not Out. A Study of People Aged 85 and Over at Home. Age Concern Institute of Gerontology King’s College, London.Google Scholar
  44. Tomassini, Cecilia; Glaser, Karen; Wolf, Douglas A.; Broese van Groenou, Marjolein I.; Grundy, Emily (2004): Living arrangements among older people: an overview of trends in Europe and the USA. Population Trends 115(2004): 24–34.Google Scholar
  45. Valkonen, T., Sihvonen, A.P. and Lahelma, E. (1997): Health expectancy by level of education in Finland. Social Science and Medicine. 44/6, 801–808.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. van de Kaa, Dirk J. (1987): Europe’s Second Demographic Transition. Population Bulletin 42(1987)1: 1–58.Google Scholar
  47. van de Water, H.P.A., Boshuizen, H.C. and Perenboom, R.J.M. (1996): Health expectancy in the Netherlands 1983-1990. European Journal of public health 6, 21–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. van Ginneken, J.K.S., Dissevelt, A.G., van de Water, H.P.A. and van Sonsbeek, J.L.A. (1991): Results of two methods to determine health expectancy in the Netherlands in 1981-1985. Social Science andMedicine 32/10, 1129–1136.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. van Imhoff, E. and Keilman, N. W. (1991): LIPRO 2.0: an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands. NIDI/CBGS Publications No. 23, Amsterdam/Lisse: Swets & Zeitlinger. 245 p.Google Scholar
  50. Wagner, Michael and Wolf, Christof (2001): Altern, Familie und soziales Netzwerk Zeitschrift für Erziehungswissenschaft 4(2001): 529–554.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät, Lehrstuhl für empirische Sozialforschung und DemographieUniversität RostockRostockGermany

Personalised recommendations