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Die Beobachtung makroökonomischer Zahlen auf den Finanzmärkten

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Die Ordnung des Kontingenten

Part of the book series: Innovation und Gesellschaft ((INNOVAT))

Zusammenfassung

Seit dem Zusammenbruch von Bretton Woods vor ca. vierzig Jahren sind die Währungsmärkte zu globalen Finanzmärkten geworden, auf denen mittlerweile 5,3 Billionen Dollars täglich umgesetzt werden. Weil Wechselkurse zu den wichtigsten Preisen in der Ökonomie zählen, stellte sich bereits in den 1970er Jahren die Frage, wie die Preisbildung auf den Währungsmärkten mit volkswirtschaftlichen Größen wie Inflation, Zinsen und Wachstum zusammenhängt. Diese Frage trieb schließlich eine ganze Generation von Ökonomen zur Verzweiflung. Denn nachdem in den späten 1970er Jahren plausible makroökonomische Modelle zur Bestimmung und Vorhersage Markt-determinierter Wechselkurse entwickelt worden waren (siehe vor allem Dornbusch 1976; Frankel 1979; Frenkel 1976), ergaben anschließende ökonometrische Untersuchungen, dass diese Wechselkursmodelle nicht besser zur Vorhersage taugten als ein Zufallsgenerator (Meese/Rogoff 1983).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Kultur- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät Postfach 4466, Universität Luzern, Frohburgstr. 3, Luzern, CH – 6002, Schweiz

    Dr. Leon Wansleben

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Correspondence to Leon Wansleben .

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  1. Universität Modena/Reggio Emilia, Italy

    Alberto Cevolini

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Wansleben, L. (2014). Die Beobachtung makroökonomischer Zahlen auf den Finanzmärkten. In: Cevolini, A. (eds) Die Ordnung des Kontingenten. Innovation und Gesellschaft. Springer VS, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-19235-2_13

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-19235-2_13

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