Abstract
Global models focus on worldwide developments. These models are only of value to the study of international relations if they include political processes. The modeling of the interdependence between politics and economics at the global level goes back to two separate traditions. The first has been established by the Club of Rome, the second evolved from simulation in international relations. The GLOBUS model, developed at the Science Center for Social Research Berlin, is the marriage of both traditions. Following an overview of two decades of global modeling the question as to why simulation is useful in international relations is investigated. Several scenario analyses focussing on arms accumulation processes and disarmament using the GLOBUS model are summarized, thereby demonstrating the value of such experimental studies. Finally, a number of critical issues inherent to this approach is raised.
Zusammenfassung
Globale Entwicklungen stehen im Mittelpunkt von Weltmodellen. Derartige Modelle sind allerdings nur dann für die Internationalen Beziehungen von Bedeutung, wenn sie den Faktor Politik enthalten. Aus der Konvergenz zweier intellektueller Traditionen, der des Club of Rome und der der Simulation internationaler Beziehungen, ergab sich die Modellierung der Interdependenz von Politik und Wirtschaft auf der globalen Ebene. Das am Wissenschaftszentrum für Sozialforschung Berlin entwickelte GLOBUS-Modell stellt die Kombination beider Traditionen dar. Zunächst werden zwei Dekaden der Weltmodellierung dargestellt. Dann wird zu begründen versucht, warum die Simulation für die theoretische und empirische Forschung in den Internationalen Beziehungen von Bedeutung ist. Die Ergebnisse mehrerer Szenario-Studien sollen dieses Argument belegen. Abschließend wird eine Reihe kritischer Fragen behandelt, die dieser Ansatz aufwirft.
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Eberwein, WD. (1990). Weltmodelle und globale Entwicklungstrends — Computersimulation bei der Erforschung internationaler Beziehungen. In: Rittberger, V. (eds) Theorien der Internationalen Beziehungen. Politische Vierteljahresschrift Sonderheft, vol 21/1990. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-88719-1_9
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