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Zur Theorie außenpolitischer Entscheidungsprozesse

  • Helga Haftendorn
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Part of the Politische Vierteljahresschrift Sonderheft book series (PVS, volume 21/1990)

Zusammenfassung

In dem Beitrag wird eine Bestandsaufnahme der verschiedenen theoretischen Konzepte zur Analyse außenpolitischer Entscheidungen vorgenommen. Dabei wird unterschieden zwischen, erstens, solchen Ansätzen, die von einem rationalen, ziel- und zweckgerichteten Verhalten individueller oder kollektiver Akteure ausgehen (z. B. „Realistische Schule“, Neorealismus und Spieltheorie); zweitens, solchen Ansätzen, die zur Erklärung des Entscheidungsverhaltens das operative Umfeld, d. h. soziale und organisatorische Strukturen (z. B. funktionale System theorie, Politische Kybernetik, Organisations- und Bürokratietheorie) heranziehen; und schließlich, drittens, solchen Ansätzen, die Entscheidungen mit dem psychologischen Umfeld, d. h. mit individuellen oder kollektiven Wahrnehmungs-, Einstellungs- oder Verhaltensvariablen (z. B. Politische Psychologie und Sozialpsychologie) erklären. Die Verfasserin kommt zu dem Schluß, daß diejenigen Ansätze, die sich in besonderer Weise als Forschungsprogramm oder Methode eignen, nur einen geringen theoretischen Erklärungswert besitzen. Generalisierende, kausale Aussagen seien erst dann zu erwarten, wenn eine größere Anzahl von vergleichbaren und vergleichenden Fallstudien zu außenpolitischen Entschei-dungsprozessen vorliegt.

Abstract

This paper evaluates the various approaches for analyzing foreign policy decisionmaking. A distinction is made between three categories of concepts according to their underlying theoretical assumptions: first, rational actor und rational choice models (e.g. realism, neorealism, and game theory); second, models with special emphasis on the operational environment and on situational or organizational variables (e.g. systems theory, organizational behavior, bureaucratic politics approach); and third, models emphasizing the psychological environment as well as perceptional or attitudonal variables (political psychology). The author concludes that concepts which are useful as a method for conceptualizing empirical research are not very fruitful for explanation and theory-building. She assumes that meaningful theories on foreign policy decision-making can only be developed if more empirically relevant case studies are available for structured comparison.

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© Westdeutscher Verlag GmbH, Opladen 1990

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  • Helga Haftendorn

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