Entwicklungslinien und Zukunft des Schiffskreditgeschäftes

Summary

Of the estimated US-$ 29 000 billion total world national products, world trade amounts to an impressive US-$ 8 300 billion. 85 percent of world trade, 98 percent of intercontinental trade and 30 percent of intereuropean trade is transported by sea. World trade is growing much faster than GNP, which has grown during recent years by around 3–4 percent per annum. This trend is most likely to continue in the forthcoming years. The world fleet, however, will grow by only 2–3 percent per annum because of its increasing efficiency and existing overcapacity. The long awaited building boom for the replacement of overaged tonnage, however, will change this picture.

Depending on yearly scrapping volume, the estimated yearly need for shipping finance in the coming 10–15 years will amount to around US-$ 20–25 billion. Such expectations depend heavily on the further development of world trade, i.e. on the growth of emerging countries in the Far East and the Americas, the influence of environmental legislation, and the outcome of the new OECD ship-building-agreement.

Due to improvements in the shipping markets since 1986, the number of banks active in international ship financing has grown from 40–50 banks to around 120 banks today (mainly US, UK, Dutch, French, German, Hongkong and Singapore banks).

In addition to the classical form of ship mortgage loans, there are many new market products, like roll-over loans, bonds, financial derivatives, mezzanine finance, private placements, and the stock exchange market. Nevertheless, bank lending will remain the most important source of refinancing.

Cash-flow and profitability forcasts will become more important than the analysis of balance-sheets and profit and loss accounts, which can only show the situation of the past.

The close relationship between shipowners and industrial as well as trading companies will become increasingly important also for banks, which prefer to see ships they finance sailing under longterm charter or employment agreements.

Ship finance will remain a field for specialised banks with a deep knowlege of all possible angles of this market.