Abstract
In the Pliocene Epoch (5.3–2.6 million years ago), there was an abrupt cooling of the Arctic, from an ice-free to an ice-covered climate state. A simple conceptual mathematical model of Arctic climate is used to explore the potential role of forcing factors, such as \(\mathrm {CO}_2\) concentration and ocean heat transport to the Arctic, as well as nonlinear feedback mechanisms, such as ice-albedo feedback and water vapour feedback, in the climate change of the Pliocene Arctic. The mathematical model provides a plausible explanation for this abrupt climate change, involving both of these forcing factors and both of the nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The model also sheds light on the fact that modern general circulation models have been unable to reproduce this dramatic change in Arctic climate.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank J. Bassinger, D. Greenwood and G. Lewis for helpful discussions in the course of this work.
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Dortmans, B., Langford, W.F., Willms, A.R. (2018). A Conceptual Model for the Pliocene Paradox. In: Kilgour, D., Kunze, H., Makarov, R., Melnik, R., Wang, X. (eds) Recent Advances in Mathematical and Statistical Methods . AMMCS 2017. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, vol 259. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99719-3_31
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