Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A Statistical Model Based on Non-stationary Predictors

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Interdecadal Changes in Ocean Teleconnections with the Sahel

Part of the book series: Springer Theses ((Springer Theses))

  • 169 Accesses

Abstract

As stated, SST is the key variable when tackling seasonal to decadal climate forecast. Dynamical models are unable to properly reproduce tropical climate variability, introducing biases that prevent a skillful predictability. Statistical methodologies emerge as an alternative to improve the predictability and reduce these biases. As a starting point for this thesis, a statistical model was designed and created to improve the predictability and investigate potential non-stationary teleconnections. This model has been named as the sea surface temperature-based statistical seasonal foreCAST model (S4CAST). The model is based on the MCA method and introduces the novelty of considering the non-stationary links between the predictor and predictand fields. The results presented in this section are focused on the model development, integrating the methodologies described in Chap. 6. The model has been published (Suárez-Moreno and Rodríguez-Fonseca 2015), and the code is freely available online (see Sect. 7.6). The S4CAST model has been created and used throughout this thesis to put forward a series of hypothesis. Most of the results collected in this section correspond to the publication aforementioned.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Barnston AG and Ropelewski CF (1992) Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis. Journal of Climate 5 11 1316–1345

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnston AG (1992) Correspondence among the Correlation, RMSE, and Heidke Forecast Verification Measures; Refinement of the Heidke Score. Weather and Forecasting 7 4 699–709

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnston AG and Smith TM (1996) Specification and prediction of global surface temperature and precipitation from global SST using CCA. Journal of Climate 9 11 2660–2697

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnston AG and Tippett MK (2014) Climate information, outlooks, and understanding–where does the IRI stand?. Earth Perspectives 1 1 20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnston AG, Tippett MK, van den Dool HM and Unger DA (2015) Toward an Improved Multimodel ENSO Prediction. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 54 7 1579–1595

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bellenger H, Guilyardi E, Leloup J, Lengaigne M and Vialard J (2013) ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Climate Dynamics 42 7-8 1999–2018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Biasutti M, Sobel AH and Kushnir Y (2006) AGCM Precipitation biases in the tropical Atlantic. Journal of Climate 19 6 935–958

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bretherton C, Smith C and Wallace J (1992) An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data. Journal of Climate 5 6 541–560

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown JN, Sen Gupta A, Brown JR, Muir LC, Risbey JS, Whetton P, Zhang X, Ganachaud A, Murphy B and Wijffels SE (2013) Implications of CMIP3 model biases and uncertainties for climate projections in the western tropical Pacific. Climatic Change 119 1 147–161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camberlin P, Janicot S and Poccard I (2001) Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic vs. ENSO. International Journal of Climatology 21 8 973–1005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook KH and Vizy EK (2006) Coupled Model Simulations of the West African Monsoon System: Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Simulations. Journal of Climate 19 15 3681–3703

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diatta S and Fink AH (2014) Statistical relationship between remote climate indices and West African monsoon variability. International Journal of Climatology 34 12 3348–3367

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding H, Keenlyside NS and Latif M (2012) Impact of the Equatorial Atlantic on the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Climate Dynamics 38 9–10 1965–1972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doi T, Vecchi GA, Rosati AJ and Delworth TL (2012) Biases in the Atlantic ITCZ in seasonal-interannual variations for a coarse-and a high-resolution coupled climate model. Journal of Climate 25 16 5494–5511

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Folland C, Palmer T and Parker D (1986) Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures. Nature Publishing Group 320 1091–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fontaine B and Janicot S (1996) Sea surface temperature fields associated with West African rainfall anomaly types. Journal of Climate 9 11 2935–2940

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fontaine B, Trzaska S and Janicot S (1998) Evolution of the relationship between near global and Atlantic SST modes and the rainy season in West Africa: statistical analyses and sensitivity experiments. Climate Dynamics 14 5 353–368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fontaine B, Philippon N and Camberlin P (1999) An improvement of June–September rainfall forecasting in the Sahel based upon region April–May moist static energy content (1968–1997). Geophysical Research Letters 26 14 2041–2044

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giannini A, Saravanan R and Chang P (2003) Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science 302 5647 1027–1030

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giannini A, Saravanan R and Chang P (2005) Dynamics of the boreal summer African monsoon in the NSIPP1 atmospheric model. Climate Dynamics 25 5 517–535

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Janicot S (1992) Spatiotemporal variability of West African rainfall. Part I: Regionalizations and typings. Journal of Climate 5 5 489–497

    Google Scholar 

  • Janicot S, Moron V and Fontaine B (1996) Sahel droughts and ENSO dynamics. Geophysical Research Letters 23 5 515–518

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Janicot S, Harzallah A, Fontaine B and Moron V (1998) West African Monsoon Dynamics and Eastern Equatorial Atlantic and Pacific SST Anomalies (1970–88). Journal of Climate 11 8 1874–1882

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Janicot S, Trzaska S and Poccard I (2001) Summer Sahel-ENSO teleconnection and decadal time scale SST variations. Climate Dynamics 18 3 303–320

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Janowiak JE (1988) An Investigation of Interannual Rainfall Variability in Africa. Journal of Climate 1 3 240–255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joly M and Voldoire A (2009) Influence of ENSO on the West African Monsoon: Temporal Aspects and Atmospheric Processes. Journal of Climate 22 12 3193–3210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knippertz P, Ulbrich U, Marques F and Corte-Real J (2003) Decadal changes in the link between El Niño and springtime North Atlantic oscillation and European–North African rainfall. International Journal of Climatology 23 11 1293–1311

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Korecha D and Barnston AG (2007) Predictability of june–september rainfall in Ethiopia. Monthly Weather Review 135 2 628–650

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li G and Xie S-P (2013) Tropical Biases in CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: The excessive Equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double ITCZ problems*. Journal of Climate 27 4 1765–1780

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin JL (2007) The double-ITCZ problem in IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: Ocean-atmosphere feedback analysis. Journal of Climate 20 18 4497–4525

    Google Scholar 

  • López-Parages J and Rodríguez-Fonseca B (2012) Multidecadal modulation of El Niño influence on the Euro-Mediterranean rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters 39 2 L02704

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • López-Parages J, Rodríguez-Fonseca B and Terray L (2015) A mechanism for the multidecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnection with Europe. Climate Dynamics 45 3 867–880

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Losada T, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Janicot S, Gervois S, Chauvin F and Ruti P (2010a) A multi-model approach to the Atlantic Equatorial mode: impact on the West African monsoon. Climate Dynamics 35 1 29–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Losada T, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Polo I, Janicot S, Gervois S, Chauvin F and Ruti P (2010b) Tropical response to the Atlantic Equatorial mode: AGCM multimodel approach. Climate Dynamics 35 1 45–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Losada T, Rodriguez-Fonseca B, Mohino E, Bader J, Janicot S and Mechoso CR (2012) Tropical SST and Sahel rainfall: A non-stationary relationship. Geophysical Research Letters 39 12 L12705

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mariotti A, Zeng N and Lau KM (2002) Euro-Mediterranean rainfall and ENSO—a seasonally varying relationship. Geophysical Research Letters 29 12 59–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martín-Rey M, Polo I, Rodríguez-Fonseca B and Kucharski F (2012) Changes in the interannual variability of the tropical Pacific as a response to an equatorial Atlantic forcing. Scientia Marina 76 S1 105–116

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martín-Rey M, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Polo I and Kucharski F (2014) On the Atlantic–Pacific Niños connection: a multidecadal modulated mode. Climate Dynamics 43 11 3163–3178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martín-Rey M, Rodríguez-Fonseca B and Polo I (2015) Atlantic opportunities for ENSO prediction. Geophysical Research Letters 42 16 6802–6810

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohino E, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Losada T, Gervois S, Janicot S, Bader J, Ruti P and Chauvin F (2011a) Changes in the interannual SST-forced signals on West African rainfall. AGCM intercomparison. Climate Dynamics 37 9–10 1707–1725

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohino E, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Mechoso CR, Gervois S, Ruti P and Chauvin F (2011b) Impacts of the tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the seasonal cycle of the West African monsoon. Journal of Climate 24 15 3878–3891

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nnamchi H and Li J (2011) Influence of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole on West African Summer precipitation. Journal of Climate 24 4 1184–1197

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palmer TN (1986) Influence of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans on Sahel rainfall. Nature 322 6076 251–253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polo I, Martin-Rey M, Rodriguez-Fonseca B, Kucharski F and Mechoso C (2015) Processes in the Pacific La Niña onset triggered by the Atlantic Niño. Climate Dynamics 44 1 115–131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polo I, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Losada T and García-Serrano J (2008) Tropical Atlantic variability Modes (1979–2002). Part I: Time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall. Journal of Climate 21 24 6457–6475

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Recalde-Coronel GC, Barnston AG and Muñoz ÁG (2014) Predictability of december–april rainfall in coastal and Andean Ecuador. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 53 6 1471–1493

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richter I and Xie SP (2008) On the origin of equatorial Atlantic biases in coupled general circulation models. Climate Dynamics 31 5 587–598

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richter I, Xie SP, Wittenberg A and Masumoto Y (2012) Tropical Atlantic biases and their relation to surface wind stress and terrestrial precipitation. Climate Dynamics 38 5–6 985–1001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rimbu N, Lohmann G, Felis T and Pätzold J (2003) Shift in ENSO teleconnections recorded by a northern red sea coral. Journal of Climate 16 9 1414–1422

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Polo I, García-Serrano J, Losada T, Mohino E, Mechoso CR and Kucharski F (2009) Are Atlantic Niños enhancing Pacific ENSO events in recent decades?. Geophysical Research Letters 36 20 L20705

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Janicot S, Mohino E, Losada T, Bader J, Caminade C, Chauvin F, Fontaine B, García-Serrano J, Gervois S, Joly M, Polo I, Ruti P, Roucou P and Voldoire A (2011) Interannual and decadal SST-forced responses of the West African monsoon. Atmospheric Science Letters 12 1 67–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Mohino E, Mechoso CR, Caminade C, Biasutti M, Gaetani M, Garcia-Serrano J, Vizy EK, Cook K, Xue Y, Polo I, Losada T, Druyan L, Fontaine B, Bader J, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Goddard L, Janicot S, Arribas A, Lau W, Colman A, Vellinga M, Rowell DP, Kucharski F and Voldoire A (2015) Variability and predictability of West African Droughts: A review on the role of sea surface temperature anomalies. Journal of Climate 28 10 4034–4060

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Suárez-Moreno R, Ayarzagüena B, López-Parages J, Gómara I, Villamayor J, Mohino E, Losada T and Castaño-Tierno A (2016) A review of ENSO influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal. Atmosphere 7 7

    Google Scholar 

  • Rowell DP (2001) Teleconnections between the tropical Pacific and the Sahel. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 127 575 1683–1706

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suárez-Moreno R and Rodríguez-Fonseca B (2015) S4CAST v2.0: sea surface temperature based statistical seasonal forecast model. Geoscientific model development 8 11 3639–3658

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Toniazzo T and Woolnough S (2014) Development of warm SST errors in the southern tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. Climate Dynamics 43 11 2889–2913

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Oldenborgh GJ and Burgers G (2005) Searching for decadal variations in ENSO precipitation teleconnections. Geophysical Research Letters 32 15

    Google Scholar 

  • Vannière B, Guilyardi E, Madec G, Doblas-Reyes F and Woolnough S (2013) Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the origin of the equatorial cold tongue bias in CGCMs and its impact on ENSO. Climate Dynamics 40 3–4 963–981

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wahl S, Latif M, Park W and Keenlyside N (2011) On the tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate Model. Climate Dynamics 36 5 891–906

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wallace JM, Smith C and Bretherton CS (1992) Singular Value Decomposition of wintertime sea surface temperature and 500-mb height anomalies. Journal of Climate 5 6 561–576

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ward MN (1998) Diagnosis and short-lead time prediction of summer rainfall in tropical North Africa at interannual and multidecadal timescales. Journal of Climate 11 12 3167–3191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xue Y, Chen M, Kumar A, Hu Z-Z and Wang W (2013) Prediction skill and bias of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. Journal of Climate 26 15 5358–5378

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zanchettin D, Franks SW, Traverso P and Tomasino M (2008) On ENSO impacts on European wintertime rainfalls and their modulation by the NAO and the Pacific multi-decadal variability described through the PDO index. International Journal of Climatology 28 8 995–1006

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Physical Sciences, Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Complutense University of Madrid, Los Molinos, Madrid, Spain

    Roberto Suárez Moreno

Authors
  1. Roberto Suárez Moreno
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Suárez Moreno, R. (2019). A Statistical Model Based on Non-stationary Predictors. In: Interdecadal Changes in Ocean Teleconnections with the Sahel. Springer Theses. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99450-5_7

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation