Was Sulphur Regulation the Reason for Growth of Unitized Cargo Between Finland and Estonia?

Abstract

Within the European map, Finland is a little like an island; the country is in peninsula position within the northern Baltic Sea. Therefore, foreign transportation flows are tied to the sea. In the Baltic Sea region, Finland’s most important foreign destinations of unitized cargo (containers, semi-trailers and trucks) are the sea ports of Germany, Sweden and Estonia. Previously, Germany and Sweden were clearly dominating in terms of cargo flows. However, Estonia has continuously grown (and continues to do so) and in 2015 it reached the same levels of volumes with Sweden. There are number of reasons and long-term drivers that make the Estonian route attractive, but its ability to match Swedish volumes in 2015 was mostly enabled by changes in environmental legislation. During 2010 and 2015, the Baltic Sea region faced sulphur regulation changes with companies required to use shipping fuel with a much lower sulphur content. In regression models, both of these years are significant in explaining freight volume change (growth in Estonia and decline in Sweden), however, 2015 in particular was clearly a game changer (with decline even in the German route).