Abstract
The objective of this work is to assess the projections of climate change in the city of Santos. The assessment is based on the downscaling of two global climate model simulations using the Eta Regional Climate Model at 20-km and 5-km resolutions, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the period between 1961 and 2100. The higher horizontal resolution simulations reproduce in more detail the surface characteristics, such as the topography, vegetation cover, and coastline, and capture the extreme climate events. Evaluation of the model simulations of the present climate show reasonable agreement with observed climatology. Frequency distributions of precipitation and temperature values show that the 5-km run approaches the observed precipitation better than the 20-km resolution run. The assessment of climate change projections indicates that warming in the region reaches about 2 °C until the end of the twenty-first century, and that precipitation reduces in the entire region. Trends of climatic extreme indices show increase of hot days, warm nights, and in the length of consecutive dry days with the increase of the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Projections of the minimum surface pressure off the coast of Southeast Brazil show weakening tendency under RCP8.5 scenario.
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Acknowledgments
This work was partially funded by CNPq 308035/2013-5, CNPq 306757/2017-6, FAPESP 2012/51876-0, FAPESP 2014/21048-4, FAPESP 2014/00192-0, and FAPESP 2017/06627-6.
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Chou, SC. et al. (2019). Projections of Climate Change in the Coastal Area of Santos. In: Nunes, L., Greco, R., Marengo, J. (eds) Climate Change in Santos Brazil: Projections, Impacts and Adaptation Options. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-96535-2_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-96535-2_4
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