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Predicting Future with Social Media Based on Sentiment and Quantitative Analysis

  • Sahil SharmaEmail author
  • Jon Rokne
  • Reda Alhajj
Chapter
Part of the Lecture Notes in Social Networks book series (LNSN)

Abstract

With the advent and spread of Web 2.0 (O’Reilly, 2005) in the early twenty-first century, the Internet has seen a big shift in the participation and proportional quantity content coming from the average Internet users. Among the various aspects of Internet that came into existence owing to this large flow of user-generated content, the social media platforms are one of the most prominent ones. These sites are highly popular and host home to big virtual communities. With the rising popularity, these sites now comprise of a vast proportion of people reflecting their real-world opinions and emotions in a virtual setup. Now, social media is a virtual data log of human interactions. These platforms serve very big quantity of data which has intrinsic insights into the user’s perspective on different aspects. Hence, for modern-day research purposes, this informational data comprises of large potentials. Many of such researches include the research to predict future in stock markets and there are various examples of how social data can be used to benefit—even totally automate the process of stock trading, using social media to form early warning system for disaster management and emergencies, etc. One such interesting is to analyze and see whether social media insights can help us predict the outcomes of an election. In this research, we try to focus on the 2016 US presidential elections and do a case study between the few leading candidates and see whether the analysis can help us predict the winner. This analysis is carried out on the social media site, Twitter. This research is feasible since the topic under consideration is heavily human-influenced. It makes sense that we should be feasible to use social media as an efficient indicator of probable electoral outcomes since a large proportion of population are active on these social media platforms and do share their opinions. The opinions reflect their real-world perspective on these sensitive topics. Hence, it can be expected to translate to real-world outcomes of such events.

Keywords

Sentiment analysis Social media Election Twitter Natural language processing Data analysis Data crawling Prediction 

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Computer ScienceUniversity of CalgaryCalgaryCanada

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