Quantitative Bowtie Risk Model: An Agile Tool in the Utility Toolkit

Abstract

A major challenge faced by asset-intensive organisations is understanding the influence individual assets have on their parent facilities, and further, understanding the level of influence individual assets have on an organisation meeting its strategic goals. The need for an agile decision-making tool which provided this insight was identified and a Quantitative Bowtie Risk Model (QBRM) was developed. Probabilistic data such as condition rating, as-new failure frequency and barrier effectiveness are entered as modelling inputs. The quantitative likelihood and consequence outputs are then calculated and presented on the Bowtie graphic, which are mapped to the organisation’s Corporate Risk Heat Map. Risk-dollars are used to demonstrate annualised fiscal risk exposure, providing cost-benefit optimisation of mitigation options. This allows the analyst to explore proposed mitigation options by altering inputs to represent the proposed options and then compare against the base case bowtie. The QBRM allows the analyst to explore TOTEX asset decisions, optimising risk, cost and performance across a combination of options. The QBRM also provides data confidence levels to the analyst by using qualitative and quantitative ratios to strengthen business case justification and helps identify knowledge areas needing improvement. This paper demonstrates the value of the QBRM through a real case study centred on a water pumping station.