Abstract
Some consumer products, termed essential consumer goods, are crucial to sustaining health or even life. A shortage in supply of essential consumer goods can have tangible negative impacts on society. This study applies this topic to the case of inexpensive, generic, injectable oncological medication shortages in Europe. Cancer patient outcomes including survival rates, as well as treatment costs, are significantly influenced by oncological medicines shortages. Even though the problem is well documented and universally acknowledged, a lack of data has deterred any quantitative solution-oriented studies. However, a structural model can provide reliable insight in cases where data is unavailable or unreliable through relying on structural validation.
This study proposes the first causal model showing the underlying structure of the European inexpensive, generic, injectable oncological medications supply chain. This study identifies the most common causes of supply shortages and develops a quantitative supply chain model with the ability to simulate causes of identified shortages. Finally, key performance indicators are proposed to evaluate the sustainability of the supply chains in question from several perspectives.
Our study calls for a quantitative comparison and robust sensitivity analysis of all primary and secondary causes of medicines shortages using the proposed model. Furthermore, both existing and new policy recommendations regarding oncological medicines shortages in Europe should be studied quantitatively.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Change history
25 November 2018
The sequence of the authors names was incorrect and it has now been corrected as Lize Duminy and Stefan N. Grosser.
Notes
- 1.
- 2.
Due to the lack of data available, the total production sizes are estimated in the examples shown in this study.
References
Barlas, Y. (1989). Multiple tests for validation of system dynamics type of simulation models. European Journal of Operational Research, 42, 59–87.
Barlas, Y. (1990). An autocorrelation function test for out put validation. Simulation, 55, 7–16.
Barlas, Y. (1996). Formal aspects of model validity and validation in system dynamics. System Dynamics Review, 12, 183–210.
Becker, D. J., Talwar, S., Levy, B. P., Thorn, M., Roitman, J., Blum, R. H., Harrison, L. B., & Grossbard, M. L. (2013). Impact of oncology drug shortages on patient therapy: Unplanned treatment changes. Journal of Oncology Practice, 9, e122–e128.
Bhattacharjee, S., & Cruz, J. (2015). Economic sustainability of closed loop supply chains: A holistic model for decision and policy analysis. Decision Support Systems, 77, 67–86.
Birgli. (2013). An evaluation of medicines shortages in Europe with a more in-depth review of these in France, Greece, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom.
Bogaert, P., Bochenek, T., Prokop, A., & Pilc, A. (2015). A qualitative approach to a better understanding of the problems underlying drug shortages, as viewed from Belgian, French and the European Union’s Perspectives. PLoS One, 10, e0125691.
Cherny, N., Sullivan, R., Torode, J., Saar, M., & Eniu, A. (2016). ESMO European Consortium Study on the availability, out-of-pocket costs and accessibility of antineoplastic medicines in Europe. Annals of Oncology, 27, 1423–1443.
De Weerdt, E., Simoens, S., Casteels, M., & Huys, I. (2015). Toward a European definition for a drug shortage: A qualitative study. Frontiers in Pharmacology, 6, 253.
Disney, S. M., & Towill, D. R. (2003). The effect of vendor managed inventory (VMI) dynamics on the Bullwhip Effect in supply chains. International Journal of Production Economics, 85, 199–215.
Dubey, R., Gunasekaran, A., Childe, S. J., Papadopoulos, T., & Fosso Wamba, S. (2017). World class sustainable supply chain management: critical review and further research directions. International Journal of Logistics Management, 28, 332–362.
EAHP. (2014). Medicines Shortages in European Hospitals: The evidence and case for action. Brussels: European Association of Hospital Pharmacists (EAHP).
Economist Intelligence Unit. (2017). Cancer medicines shortages in Europe: Policy recommendations to prevent and manage shortages. London: The Economist.
Elkington, J. (1998). Cannibals with Forks: The triple bottom line of the 21st century. Stoney Creek: New Society Publishers.
Elkington, J. (2004). Enter the triple bottom line. In A. Henriques & J. Richardson (Eds.), The triple bottom line: Does it all add up? London: Earthscan.
EMA. (2012). Reflection paper on medicinal product supply shortages caused by manufacturing/Good Manufacturing Practice Compliance problems.
EMA. (2016). Developing a proactive approach to the prevention of medicines shortages due to manufacturing and quality problems. London. http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/Report/2016/01/WC500200281.pdf
Forrester, J. W. (1958). Industrial dynamics-a major breakthrough for decision makers. Harvard Business Review, 36, 37.
Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial dynamics. Cambridge, MA (now available from Pegasus Communications, Waltham, MA): MIT Press.
Forrester, J. W. (1980). Information sources for modeling the national economy. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75, 555–566.
Fox, E. R., Sweet, B. V., & Jensen, V. (2014). Drug shortages: A complex health care crisis. Mayo Clinic Proceedings. Elsevier, 361-373.
Ganslandt, M., & Maskus, K. E. (2004). Parallel imports and the pricing of pharmaceutical products: Evidence from the European Union. Journal of Health Economics, 23, 1035–1057.
Georgiadis, P., & Athanasiou, E. (2013). Flexible long-term capacity planning in closed-loop supply chains with remanufacturing. European Journal of Operational Research, 225, 44–58.
Georgiadis, P., & Besiou, M. (2008). Sustainability in electrical and electronic equipment closed-loop supply chains: A system dynamics approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 16, 1665–1678.
GIRP. (2013). Medicine shortages in Europe and their impact on patients: A reflection paper.
Gogineni, K., Shuman, K. L., & Emanuel, E. J. (2013). Survey of oncologists about shortages of cancer drugs. New England Journal of Medicine, 369, 2463–2464.
Goldsack, J. C., Reilly, C., Bush, C., Mcelligott, S., Bristol, M. N., Motanya, U. N., Field, R., Vozniak, J. M., Wong, Y.-N., & Schwartz, J. S. (2014). Impact of shortages of injectable oncology drugs on patient care. American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy, 71, 571.
Groesser, S. N., & Schwaninger, M. (2012). Contributions to model validation: Hierarchy, process, and cessation. System Dynamics Review, 28, 157–181.
Harland, D. (1987). The United Nations guidelines for consumer protection. Journal of Consumer Policy, 10, 245–266.
Havrilesky, L. J., Garfield, C. F., Barnett, J. C., & Cohn, D. E. (2012). Economic impact of paclitaxel shortage in patients with newly diagnosed ovarian cancer. Gynecologic Oncology, 125, 631–634.
Hayes, M. S., Ward, M. A., Slabaugh, S. L., & Xu, Y. (2014). Lessons from the leucovorin shortages between 2009 and 2012 in a medicare advantage population: Where do we go from here? American health & drug benefits, 7, 264.
Hedman, L. (2016). Global approaches to addressing shortages of essential medicines in health systems. WHO Drug Information, 30, 180.
Hutchins, M. J., & Sutherland, J. W. (2008). An exploration of measures of social sustainability and their application to supply chain decisions. Journal of Cleaner Production, 16, 1688–1698.
Kamath, N. B., & Roy, R. (2007). Capacity augmentation of a supply chain for a short lifecycle product: A system dynamics framework. European Journal of Operational Research, 179, 334–351.
Kweder, S. L., & Dill, S. (2013). Drug shortages: The cycle of quantity and quality. Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics, 93, 245–251.
Lai, D., & Wahba, R. (2001). System dynamics model correctness checklist. MIT D-Memo, D-4851(1), 15.
Lehr, C. B., Thun, J.-H., & Milling, P. M. (2013). From waste to value – a system dynamics model for strategic decision-making in closed-loop supply chains. International Journal of Production Research, 51, 4105–4116.
Lin, W.-J., Jiang, Z.-B., Liu, R., & Wang, L. (2014a). The bullwhip effect in hybrid supply chain. International Journal of Production Research, 52, 2062–2084.
Lin, W.-J., Jiang, Z.-B., & Wang, L. (2014b). Modelling and analysis of the bullwhip effect with customers’ baulking behaviours and production capacity constraint. International Journal of Production Research, 52, 4835–4852.
Martinelli, E. (2017). Interview about medicine shortages (not published, personal communication).
Martinez-Moyano, I. J. (2012). Documentation for model transparency. System Dynamics Review, 28, 199–208.
Mehrjoo, M., & Pasek, Z. J. (2016). Risk assessment for the supply chain of fast fashion apparel industry: A system dynamics framework. International Journal of Production Research, 54, 28–48.
Pauwels, K., Huys, I., Casteels, M., & Simoens, S. (2014). Drug shortages in European countries: A trade-off between market attractiveness and cost containment? BMC Health Services Research, 14, 438.
Pauwels, K., Simoens, S., Casteels, M., & Huys, I. (2015). Insights into European drug shortages: A survey of hospital pharmacists. PLoS One, 10, e0119322.
Pruyt, E. (2013). Small system dynamics models for big issues: Triple jump towards real-World complexity. Delft: TU Delft Library.
Rahmandad, H., & Sterman, J. D. (2012). Reporting guidelines for simulation-based research in social sciences. System Dynamics Review, 28, 396–411.
Richardson, G. P. (2000). Richardson’s rule. Simulating dynamic systems (PAD 624 Course) lecture notes. University at Albany, State University of New York.
Richardson, G. P., & Pugh, A. I., III. (1981). Introduction to system dynamics modeling with DYNAMO. Productivity Press: Cambridge, MA.
Rider, A. E., Templet, D. J., Daley, M. J., Shuman, C., & SMITH, L. V. (2013). Clinical dilemmas and a review of strategies to manage drug shortages. Journal of Pharmacy Practice, 26, 183–191.
Senge, P. M., & Forrester, J. W. (1980). Tests for building confidence in system dynamics models. In System dynamics, TIMS studies in management sciences (Vol. 14, pp. 209–228).
Sterman, J. (2000). Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Boston: Irwin/McGraw-Hill.
System Dynamics Society. (2017). Tools for system dynamics: SDM-Doc [Online]. Available: http://tools.systemdynamics.org/sdm-doc/ Accessed 15 July 2017.
Van Boom, W., & Garde, A. (2016). The European unfair commercial practices directive: Impact, enforcement strategies and national legal systems. London: Routledge.
Vlachos, D., Georgiadis, P., & Iakovou, E. (2007). A system dynamics model for dynamic capacity planning of remanufacturing in closed-loop supply chains. Computers & Operations Research, 34, 367–394.
Wangphanich, P., Kara, S., & Kayis, B. (2010). Analysis of the bullwhip effect in multi-product, multi-stage supply chain systems-a simulation approach. International Journal of Production Research, 48, 4501–4517.
WHO. (2015). Executive Board 138th session: Addressing the global shortage of medicines, and the safety and accessibility of children’s mediciation. Geneva: World Health Organization.
WHO. (2017). Technical definitions of shortages and stockouts of medicines and vaccines. Geneva: World Health Organization.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Duminy, L., Grosser, S.N. (2018). Resilience as Basis for Sustainability: Shortages in Production Supply Chains for Essential Consumer Goods. In: Qudrat-Ullah, H. (eds) Innovative Solutions for Sustainable Supply Chains. Understanding Complex Systems. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-94322-0_9
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-94322-0_9
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-94321-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-94322-0
eBook Packages: Business and ManagementBusiness and Management (R0)