Abstract
Tthe possible impacts of climate change in the vulnerability of agricultural production will be analysed considering a increase in temperature of 3 °C or more until the end of the century. In order to analyse agricultural production it is important to remember that the study of the effects of the increase in temperature, should also be done together with other factors like for instance, water availability and the increase of CO2concentration. The potential risks imposed by climate change to Brazilian agriculture justify investments in farming research, particularly in the genetic modification of crops. In addition, studies to quantify the nature of extreme events, for periods between 2050 and 2011 have to be conducted. Technological advances in the management of crops and the adoption of good farming practices may also minimise impacts expected. The importance of developing crops tolerant to higher temperatures and water deficit is emphasized. With temperature increasing over 4 °C, impacts suffered will be strong at magnitudes not yet known by science. The main conclusion is that in terms of food supply, temperature rises above 4 °C place Brazil in a very vulnerable situation, compromising its current role of the future’s main player in relation to providing food to the world.
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Notes
- 1.
Materials and research produced by organizations outside of the traditional commercial or academic publishing and distribution channels.
- 2.
Study done using the PRECIS model for scenario A2.
- 3.
Areas with high temperature concentration.
- 4.
This study used the SARRA model (Systeme d’Analyse Regionale dês Risques Agroclimatiques) to assess drought risks and their impact on agriculture in the studied area.
- 5.
The agreste is a narrow zone of Northeast Brazil in the states of Rio Grande do Norte Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe and Bahia between the coastal forest zona da mata and the semiarid sertão.
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Assad, E.D., Ribeiro, R.R.R., Nakai, A.M. (2019). Assessments and How an Increase in Temperature may Have an Impact on Agriculture in Brazil and Mapping of the Current and Future Situation. In: Nobre, C., Marengo, J., Soares, W. (eds) Climate Change Risks in Brazil. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92881-4_3
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