Abstract
This chapter considers four emission scenarios of CMIP5 simulations to analyze how greenhouse gases could evolve this century and to evaluate probabilities of additional warming to Brazil based on climate projections. The results are shown in values for average temperature and anomalies close to the surface. Thus, the probabilities for a range of different warming levels were obtained exceeding by 4 °C to 7 °C for RCP 8.5. In this scenario, Brazil shows a 100% probability of suffering temperature rises of over 4 °C before the end of this century. For more extreme warming as 7 °C, the probability is of 80% by 2200. The Brazil analysis serves two purposes: a) plausible adaptation strategies require local risk knowledge; and b) the focus on higher warming temperature changes is crucial for a cost-benefit analysis of mitigation policies to reduce the risks of impacts and damages caused by extreme regional climate change. Apparently small changes in the climate may have significant effects, especially if important thresholds are surpassed. Crops have little tolerance to high temperatures, and as the climate gets warmer, these limits may be exceeded more and more often. This is one of the reasons why temperatures rise of 4 °C or more might represent severe risks for global food safety and affect food-producing countries like Brazil.
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Soares, W.R., Marengo, J.A., Nobre, C.A. (2019). Assessment of Warming Projections and Probabilities for Brazil. In: Nobre, C., Marengo, J., Soares, W. (eds) Climate Change Risks in Brazil. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92881-4_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92881-4_2
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