Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation

GDN 2018: Group Decision and Negotiation in an Uncertain World pp 14–32Cite as

A Multistage Risk Decision Making Method for Normal Cloud Model with Three Reference Points

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:

  • 684 Accesses

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing ((LNBIP,volume 315))

Abstract

Decision making problems become more complicated due to the dynamically changing environment. Consequently, decision making methods with reference points are increasing. Reference points provide a good basis for decision makers. This paper proposes a multistage risk decision making method for normal cloud model considering three reference points. Firstly, the setting method of three reference points is proposed considering the dimensions of multistate, development and promotion. The value function is defined based on the characteristics of three reference points. Secondly, the aggregation methods for different prospect values are proposed with the preference coefficients, which are calculated by the synthetic degree of grey incidence. Thirdly, a two-stage weight optimization method is proposed to solve the attribute weights and stage weights based on the idea of minimax reference point optimization. Finally, a numerical example illustrates the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Pospichal, J., Kvasnicka, V.: Multistage decision-making using simulated annealing applied to a fuzzy automaton. Appl. Soft Comput. 2(2), 140–151 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Sirbiladze, G., Khutsishvili, I., Ghvaberidze, B.: Multistage decision-making fuzzy methodology for optimal investments based on experts’ evaluations. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 232(1), 169–177 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Guo, P., Li, Y.: Approaches to multistage one-shot decision making. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 236(2), 612–623 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Qu, J., Meng, X., You, H.: Multi-stage ranking of emergency technology alternatives for water source pollution accidents using a fuzzy group decision making tool. J. Hazard. Mater. 310, 68–81 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Zhang, S.W., Guo, H.X., Zhu, K.J., Yu, S.W., Li, J.L.: Multistage assignment optimization for emergency rescue teams in the disaster chain. Knowl. Based Syst. 137, 123–137 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Yoon, K.: A reconciliation among discrete compromise solutions. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 38(3), 277–286 (1987)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Walczak, D., Rutkowska, A.: Project rankings for participatory budget based on the fuzzy TOPSIS method. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 260(2), 706–714 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Tavana, M., Caprio, D.D., Santos-Arteaga, F.J.: An extended stochastic VIKOR model with decision maker’s attitude towards risk. Inf. Sci. 432, 301–318 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Kahneman, D., Tversky, A.: Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47, 263–291 (1979)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Tversky, A., Kahneman, D.: Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J. Risk Uncertain. 5, 297–323 (1992)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Wang, L., Zhang, Z.X., Wang, Y.M.: A prospect theory-based interval dynamic reference point method for emergency DM. Expert Syst. Appl. 42(23), 9379–9388 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Zhu, J., Ma, Z., Wang, H., Chen, Y.: Risk decision-making method using interval numbers and its application based on the prospect value with multiple reference points. Inf. Sci. 385–386, 415–437 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Cables, E., Lamata, M.T., Verdegay, J.L.: RIM-reference Ideal method in multicriteria decision making. Inf. Sci. 337–338, 1–10 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Mandal, P., Kaul, R., Jain, T.: Stocking and pricing decisions under endogenous demand and reference point effects. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 264, 181–199 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Wang, J.Q., Peng, L., Zhang, H.Y., Chen, X.H.: Method of multi-criteria group decision-making based on cloud aggregation operators with linguistic information. Inf. Sci. 274, 177–181 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Li, D., Han, J., Shi, X., Chan, M.C.: Knowledge representation and discovery based on linguistic atoms. Knowl. Based Syst. 10(7), 431–440 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Yang, X., Zeng, L., Luo, F., Wang, S.: Cloud hierarchical analysis. J. Inf. Comput. Sci. 12, 2468–2477 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Yang, X., Yan, L., Zeng, L.: How to handle uncertainties in AHP: the cloud delphi hierarchical analysis. Inf. Sci. 222(3), 384–404 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Peng, B., Zhou, J., Peng, D.: Cloud model based approach to group decision making with uncertain pure linguistic information. J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst. 32(3), 1959–1968 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Wang, D., Liu, D., et al.: A cloud model-based approach for water quality assessment. Environ. Res. 149, 113–121 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Xu, C.L., Wang, G.Y.: A novel cognitive transformation algorithm based on gaussian cloud model and its application in image segmentation. Algorithms 76(4), 1039–1070 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Zhang, R.L., Shan, M.Y., Liu, X.H., Zhang, L.H.: A novel fuzzy hybrid quantum artificial immune clustering algorithm based on cloud model. Eng. Appl. AI 35, 1–13 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  23. Li, D., Liu, C., Gan, W.: A new cognitive model: cloud model. Int. J. Intell. Syst. 24(3), 357–375 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Wang, J., Zhu, J., Liu, X.: An integrated similarity measure method for normal cloud model based on shape and distance. Syst. Eng. Theory Pract. 37(3), 742–751 (2017b). (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Liu, S., Lin, Y.: Grey Information: Theory and Practical Applications. Springer, London (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/1-84628-342-6

    Book  Google Scholar 

  26. Yang, J.B.: Minimax reference point approach and its application for multiobjective optimisation. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 126(3), 90–105 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Kim, S.H., Choi, S.H., Kim, J.K.: An interactive procedure for multiple attribute group decision making with incomplete information: range-based approach. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 118(1), 139–152 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [71171112, 71502073, 71601002]; Funding of Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education (“the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities”) [KYZZ16_0147].

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, 211106, People’s Republic of China

    Wen Song & Jianjun Zhu

Authors
  1. Wen Song
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jianjun Zhu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jianjun Zhu .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, China

    Ye Chen

  2. Concordia University, Montreal, QC, Canada

    Gregory Kersten

  3. University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria

    Rudolf Vetschera

  4. Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

    Haiyan Xu

Appendix

Appendix

 

p1

p2

p3

p1

p2

p3

 

c1

c2

a1

6.69,2.27,0.35

5.7,1.93,0.47

5,1.82,0.55)

0.945,0.022,0.009

0.94,0.03,0.008

0.91,0.03,0.009

a2

8.07,2.75,0.19

5.7,1.93,0.47

5,1.82,0.55)

0.95,0.023,0.009

0.95,0.022,0.01

0.935,0.035,0.01

a3

5.7,1.93,0.47

5,1.82,0.55)

4.3,1.93,0.47

0.925,0.037,0.008

0.92,0.052,0.012

0.905,0.052,0.013

a4

6.69,2.27,0.35

5.7,1.93,0.47

5,1.82,0.55)

0.91,0.03,0.01

0.91,0.06,0.01

0.88,0.065,0.011

a5

5.7,1.93,0.47

5.7,1.93,0.47

5,1.82,0.55)

0.925,0.037,0.009

0.92,0.022,0.011

0.89,0.03,0.012

a6

8.07,2.75,0.19

6.69,2.27,0.35

5.7,1.93,0.47

0.945,0.037,0.008

0.94,0.037,0.01

0.905,0.038,0.011

a7

5,1.82,0.55)

5.7,1.93,0.47

5.7,1.93,0.47

0.94,0.015,0.009

0.94,0.03,0.01

0.91,0.033,0.011

a8

6.69,2.27,0.35

5,1.82,0.55)

5,1.82,0.55)

0.97,0.021,0.009

0.96,0.022,0.01

0.92,0.031,0.01

a9

5.7,1.93,0.47

5.7,1.93,0.47

5.7,1.93,0.47

0.94,0.024,0.008

0.94,0.037,0.009

0.915,0.041,0.01

a10

6.69,2.27,0.35

5.7,1.93,0.47

5.7,1.93,0.47

0.955,0.175,0.009

0.95,0.022,0.009

0.911,0.033,0.011

a11

6.69,2.27,0.35

5.7,1.93,0.47

5.7,1.93,0.47

0.9150.033,0.010

0.91,0.025,0.01

0.89,0.031,0.011

a12

8.07,2.75,0.19

6.69,2.27,0.35

5.7,1.93,0.47

0.925,0.028,0.009

0.92,0.023,0.009

0.905,0.025,0.011

a13

5.7,1.93,0.47

5.7,1.93,0.47

5,1.82,0.55)

0.93,0.035,0.01

0.92,0.025,0.01

0.905,0.031,0.01

a14

6.69,2.27,0.35

6.69,2.27,0.35

5.7,1.93,0.47

0.94,0.033,0.009

0.93,0.023,0.01

0.911,0.025,0.011

a15

6.69,2.27,0.35

6.69,2.27,0.35

5.7,1.93,0.47

0.955,0.031,0.009

0.94,0.028,0.009

0.91,0.031,0.011

 

c3

c4

a1

6.69,2.27,0.35

5.7,1.93,0.47

6.69,2.27,0.35

87.5,0.425,0.849

72.5,3.822,0.833

57.5,3.822,0.283

a2

8.07,2.75,0.19

5.7,1.93,0.47

5.7,1.93,0.47

85.5,0.425,0.849

74.5,1.274,0.849

65.5,0.425,1.416

a3

5.7,1.93,0.47

6.69,2.27,0.35

6.69,2.27,0.35

85,0.849,0.708

73.5,1.274,0.849

68,2.548,0.708

a4

5,1.82,0.55)

4.3,1.93,0.47

5,1.82,0.55)

87.5,1.274,0.566

72,2.548,0.425

65.4.247,0.142

a5

5,1.82,0.55)

4.3,1.93,0.47

5,1.82,0.55)

87,1.699,0.425

72,3.397,0.142

65.5,4.671,1.167

a6

5.7,1.93,0.47

5,1.82,0.55)

4.3,1.93,0.47

84.5,2.123,0.283

72.5,2.123,0.566

68.5,2.973,0.566

a7

8.07,2.75,0.19

5.7,1.93,0.47

5.7,1.93,0.47

82.5,2.123,0.283

76,0.849,0.991

71,0.849,1.274

a8

5.7,1.93,0.47

5,1.82,0.55)

5,1.82,0.55)

85,1.699,0.425

71.5,1.274,0.849

68,1.699,0.991

a9

6.69,2.27,0.35

8.07,2.75,0.19

5.7,1.93,0.47

84.5,2.973,0.667

73,1.699,0.708

67.5,2.973,0.566

a10

5,1.82,0.55)

6.69,2.27,0.35

5,1.82,0.55)

87,1.699,0.425

74.5,1.274,0.849

67,3.397,0.425

a11

5.7,1.93,0.47

8.07,2.75,0.19

6.69,2.27,0.35

80,0.849,0.708

69,2.548,0.425

63.5,3.822,0.283

a12

6.69,2.27,0.35

5.7,1.93,0.47

5.7,1.93,0.47

75,0.849,0.425

70,2.548,0.849

61.5,3.822,0.425

a13

5.7,1.93,0.47

6.69,2.27,0.35

4.3,1.93,0.47

85.5,2.123,0.283

72,0.849,0.991

61,1.699,0.991

a14

6.69,2.27,0.35

6.69,2.27,0.35

4.3,1.93,0.47

84,1.699,0.425

72.5,2.123,0.566

67.5,2.123,0.849

a15

5.7,1.93,0.47

8.07,2.75,0.19

5.7,1.93,0.47

84,1.699,0.425

72,2.548,0.425

64.5,4.671,1.167

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Song, W., Zhu, J. (2018). A Multistage Risk Decision Making Method for Normal Cloud Model with Three Reference Points. In: Chen, Y., Kersten, G., Vetschera, R., Xu, H. (eds) Group Decision and Negotiation in an Uncertain World. GDN 2018. Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, vol 315. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92874-6_2

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92874-6_2

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-92873-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-92874-6

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation