A Multistage Risk Decision Making Method for Normal Cloud Model with Three Reference Points
Decision making problems become more complicated due to the dynamically changing environment. Consequently, decision making methods with reference points are increasing. Reference points provide a good basis for decision makers. This paper proposes a multistage risk decision making method for normal cloud model considering three reference points. Firstly, the setting method of three reference points is proposed considering the dimensions of multistate, development and promotion. The value function is defined based on the characteristics of three reference points. Secondly, the aggregation methods for different prospect values are proposed with the preference coefficients, which are calculated by the synthetic degree of grey incidence. Thirdly, a two-stage weight optimization method is proposed to solve the attribute weights and stage weights based on the idea of minimax reference point optimization. Finally, a numerical example illustrates the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.
KeywordsMultistage risk decision making Three reference points Normal cloud model Two-stage weight optimization method
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [71171112, 71502073, 71601002]; Funding of Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education (“the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities”) [KYZZ16_0147].
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