Statistical Analysis of Food Crises and Mass Killing
In this chapter, we build on the empirical foundation we laid Chapter “ Urban Development and Mass Killing: A First Look at the Data” to introduce different measures operationalizing food crises. We begin by carefully constructing our first measure using data on price volatility of food commodities. We explain why such food price volatility data are effective in capturing our main theoretical conceptualization of food crises. We then statistically evaluate the interactive effect of the two independent variables of interest—our food volatility crisis indicator and the measure of urban development per capita we derived in Chapter “ Urban Development and Mass Killing: A First Look at the Data”—on the probability of localized mass killing. We then repeat this analysis using drought-based measures of food crises, measured at both the country and 0.5-degree grid cell level to illustrate that the results are not driven by potential simultaneity between food price volatility and violence.
- Barrett, Christopher B., and Marc F. Bellemare. 2011. Why Food Price Volatility Doesn’t Matter. Foreign Affairs.Google Scholar
- Brinkman, Henk-Jan, and Cullen S. Hendrix. 2011. Food Insecurity and Violent Conflict: Causes, Consequences, and Addressing the Challenges. World Food Programme. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/27510.
- Downes, Alexander B. 2008. Targeting Civilians in War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
- Food and Agricultural Organization. 2011. Price Volatility and Food Security: A Report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition, July 2011. Committee on World Food Security, High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition, Rome 2011. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/hlpe/hlpe_documents/HLPE-price-volatility-and-food-security-report-July-2011.pdf.
- Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. 2016. Statistics Division. http://faostat3.fao.org/home/E.
- Friedman, Thomas. 2013. Without Water, Revolution. New York Times. Available at www.nytimes.com/2013/05/19/opinion/sunday/friedman-without-water-revolution.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0. Accessed 10 June 2016.
- Gilbert, Christopher L. 2011. International Commodity Agreements and Their Current Relevance for Grains Prices Stabilization. In Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets, ed. Adam Prakash, 202–230. Rome, Italy: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations.Google Scholar
- Goldstein, Robert J. 1983. Political Repression in 19th Century Europe. New York, NY: Routledge.Google Scholar
- Habermas, Jürgen. 1970. Toward a Rational Society: Student Protest, Science, and Politics. New York, NY: Beacon Press.Google Scholar
- Hudson, John. 2016. U.N. Envoy Revises Syria Death Toll to 400,000. April 22. http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/22/u-n-envoy-revises-syria-death-toll-to-400000/.
- Kharas, Homi. 2011. Making Sense of Food Price Volatility. The Brookings Institution, 11 March 2011. https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/making-sense-of-food-price-volatility/.
- Kilcullen, David. 2013. Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of Urban Guerrilla. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
- McKee, Thomas B., Nolan J. Doesken, John Kleist et al. 1993. The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, vol. 17, 179–183.Google Scholar
- Rudé, George. 1964. The Crowd in History, 1730–1848: A Study of Popular Disturbances in France and England. New York, NY: Wiley.Google Scholar
- Seddon, David. 1986. Riot and Rebellion: Political Responses to Economic Crisis in North Africa (Tunisia, Morocco and Sudan). Norwich: School of Development Studies, University of East Anglia.Google Scholar
- Smith, Andrew F. 2011. Starving the South: How the North Won the Civil War. New York, NY: St. Martin’s Press.Google Scholar
- Tadasse, Getaw, Bernadina Algieri, Matthias Kalkuhl, and Joachim von Braun. 2016. Drivers and Triggers of International Food Price Spikes and Volatility. In Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy, ed. Kalkuhl Matthias, Joachim von Braun, and Maximo Torero, 59–82. Springer Nature.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Tilly, Charles. 1978. Collective Violence in European Perspective. CRSO Working Paper No. 178. https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/50953/178.pdf.
- Ulfelder, Jay. 2012. Forecasting Onsets of Mass Killing. Paper Prepared for Presentation at the Annual Northeast Political Methodology Meeting.Google Scholar
- Vidal, John. 2013. Climate Change Will Hit Poor Countries Hardest, Study Shows. The Guardian, 27 September 2013. http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/sep/27/climate-change-poor-countries-ipcc.
- Walton, John K., and David Seddon. 2008. Free Markets and Food Riots: The Politics of Global Adjustment. New York, NY: Wiley.Google Scholar
- Wroughton, Lesley. 2011. Food Prices Hit “Dangerous Levels”: World Bank Chief. Reuters, 15 February 2011. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-worldbank-food-idUSTRE71E5H720110215.