Advertisement

Introduction

  • Bumba MukherjeeEmail author
  • Ore Koren
Chapter

Abstract

In this chapter, we first lay out the book’s central research questions about the politics of mass killing campaigns in nondemocratic regimes. We define the following key concepts and terms used throughout the book’s theoretical and empirical chapters: nondemocratic regimes, “systematic” mass killing campaigns, and the de facto level of urban development within countries. We explain the importance of understanding the strategic dynamics underlying the outbreak of mass killing campaigns in nondemocracies as well as the tragic consequences of such regime-perpetrated killings of civilians in nondemocracies. We show how the book’s analysis speaks to existing literature on political violence and mass killing, repression and civil disobedience, the climate-conflict nexus, and economic development. We then provide an overview of our theoretical arguments, followed by a discussion of the book’s empirical research design, the main empirical results, and their implications for understanding the socioeconomic and political conditions that foster targeting and killing of civilians by incumbents in nondemocratic states. Finally, we present a brief outline of the book and its structure.

References

  1. Anderson, Robert Warren, Noel D. Johnson, and Mark Koyama. 2017. Jewish Persecutions and Weather Shocks: 1100–1800. The Economic Journal 127 (602): 924–958.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Anderton, C.H., and J.R. Carter. 2015. A New Look at Weak State Conditions and Genocide Risk. Peace Economics. Peace Science and Public Policy 21 (1): 1–36.Google Scholar
  3. Azam, Jean-Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. 2002. Violence Against Civilians in Civil Wars: Looting or Terror? Journal of Peace Research 39 (4): 461–485.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bagozzi, Benjamin E., Ore Koren, and Bumba Mukherjee. 2017. Droughts, Land Appropriation, and Rebel Violence in the Developing World. Journal of Politics 79 (3): 1057–1072.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bellemare, Mark F. 2015. Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest. American Journal of Agricultural Economy 97: 1–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Blattman, Christopher, and Edward Miguel. 2010. Civil War. Journal of Economic Literature 48 (1): 3–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Brass, Paul R. 1997. Theft of an Idol: Text and Context in the Representation of Collective Violence. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  8. Buhaug, Halvard. 2010. Climate Not to Blame for African Civil Wars. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 107 (38): 16477–16482.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Burke, M., E. Miguel, S. Satyanath, J. Dykema, and D. Lobell. 2009. Warming Increases the Risk of War in Africa. PNAS 106: 20670–20674.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Charny, Israel. 1982. How Can We Commit the Unthinkable? Genocide, The Human Cancer. New York: Westview Press.Google Scholar
  11. Cheibub, José Antonio, Jennifer Gandhi, and James Raymond Vreeland. 2010. Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited. Public Choice 143 (1–2): 67–101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Chen, Xi, and William D. Nordhaus. 2011. Using luminosity Data as a Proxy for Economic Statistics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 108 (21): 8589–8594.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Chenoweth, Erica, and Maria J. Stephan. 2011. Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
  14. Colaresi, Michael, and Sabine C. Carey. 2008. To Kill or to Protect: Security Forces, Domestic Institutions, and Genocide. Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (1): 39–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Danneman, N., and E.H. Ritter. 2014. Contagious Rebellion and Preemptive Repression. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (2): 254–279.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Davenport, Christian. 2000. Paths to State Repression: Human Rights Violations and Contentious Politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
  17. Davenport, Christian. 2007a. State Repression and Political Order. Annual Review of Political Science 10: 1–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Davenport, Christian. 2007b. State Repression and the Tyrannical Peace. Journal of Peace Research 44 (4): 485–504.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. De Greiff, Pablo. (ed.) 2006. The Handbook of Reparations. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  20. DeMeritt, Jacqueline H.R. 2012. International Organizations and Government Killing: Does Naming and Shaming Save Lives? International Interactions 38 (5): 597–621.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. DeMeritt, Jacqueline H.R. 2015. Delegating Death Military Intervention and Government Killing. Journal of Conflict Resolution 59 (3): 428–454.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Dhulipala, Venkat. 2015. Creating a New Medina. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Downes, Alexander B. 2008. Targeting Civilians in War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
  24. Elvidge, Christopher D., Feng-Chi Hsu, Kimberly E. Baugh, and Tilottama Ghosh. 2014. National Trends in Satellite-Observed Lighting. Global Urban Monitoring and Assessment Through Earth Observation 23: 97–118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Erdogdu, Mustafa M., and Bryan Christiansen (eds.). 2015. Comparative Political and Economic Perspectives on the MENA Region. Hershey, PA: IGI Global.Google Scholar
  26. Escribà-Folch, Abel. 2013. Repression, Political Threats, and Survival Under Autocracy. International Political Science Review 34 (5): 543–560.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. 2003. Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. American Political Science Review 97 (1): 75–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Fein, Helen. 1979. Accounting for Genocide: National Response and Jewish Victimization During the Holocaust. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
  29. Frantz, Erica, and Andrea Kendall-Taylor. 2014. A Dictators Toolkit Understanding How Co-optation Affects Repression in Autocracies. Journal of Peace Research 51 (3): 332–346.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Friedman, Thomas. 2013. Without Water, Revolution. New York Times. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/19/opinion/sunday/friedman-without-water-revolution.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0. Accessed 10 June 2016.
  31. Fujii, Lee Ann. 2009. Killing Neighbors: Webs of Violence in Rwanda. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
  32. Gagnon, V.P. 2004. The Myth of Ethnic War: Serbia and Croatia in the 1990s. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
  33. Gandhi, Jennifer, and James Vreeland. 2004. Political Institutions and Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy. University of Notre Dame. Unpublished Manuscript. http://faculty.georgetown.edu/jrv24/Gandhi_and_Vreeland.pdf.
  34. Gehlbach, Scott, Konstantin Sonin, and Milan W. Svolik. 2016. Formal Models of Nondemocratic Politics. Annual Review of Political Science 19: 565–584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Gerlach, Christian. 2006. Extremely Violent Societies: An Alternative to the Concept of Genocide. Journal of Genocide Research 8 (4): 455–471.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Gerlach, Christian. 2010. Extremely Violent Societies: Mass Violence in the Twentieth-Century World. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Gerring, John. 2006. Case Study Research: Principles and Practices. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Gibson, James L., Gregory A. Caldeira, and Lester Kenyatta Spence. 2002. The Role of Theory in Experimental Design: Experiments Without Randomization. Political Analysis 10 (4): 362–375.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 2012. Whither the Weather? Climate Change and Conflict. Journal of Peace Research 49 (1): 3–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Gleick, Peter H. 2014. Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. Weather, Climate, and Society 6: 331–340.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Goldsmith, B.E., C.R. Butcher, D. Semenovich, and A. Sowmya. 2013. Forecasting the Onset of Genocide and Politicide: Annual Out-of-Sample Forecasts on a Global Dataset, 1988–2003. Journal of Peace Research 50 (4): 437–452.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Goldstone, Jack A. 2011. Understanding the Revolutions of 2011: Weaness and Resilience in Middle Eastern Autocracies. Foreign Affairs 90: 8–16.Google Scholar
  43. Goldstone, Jack A., Robert H. Bates, David L. Epstein, Ted Robert Gurr, Michael B. Lustik, Monty G. Marshall, Jay Ulfelder, and Mark Woodward. 2010. A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability. American Journal of Political Science 54 (1): 190–208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Gurr, Ted. 1970. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  45. Habermas, Ju¨rgen. 1970. Toward a Rational Society: Student Protest, Science, and Politics. New York: Beacon Press.Google Scholar
  46. Hegre, Håvard. 2002. Some Social Requisites of a Democratic Civil Peace: Democracy, Development, and Armed Conflict. Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, vol. 29, Boston, MA.Google Scholar
  47. Henderson, J. Vernon, Adam Storeygard, and David N. Weil. 2012. Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space. American Economic Review 102 (2): 994–1028.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Hendrix, Cullen S., and Idean Salehyan. 2012. Climate Change, Rainfall, and Social Conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research 49 (1): 35–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Hendrix, Cullen S., and Stephan Haggard. 2015. Global Food Prices, Regime Type, and Urban Unrest in the Developing World. Journal of Peace Research 52 (2): 143–157.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Horowitz, Donald. 1985. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
  51. Hsiang, Solomon M., and Kyle C. Meng. 2014. Reconciling Disagreement Over Climate–Conflict Results in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (6): 2100–2103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Hudson, John. 2016. U.N. Envoy Revises Syria Death Toll to 400,000, April 22. http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/22/u-n-envoy-revises-syria-death-toll-to-400000/.
  53. International Crisis Group. 2011. Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (IV): Tunisia’s Way. MiddleEast/North Africa Report No. 106, April 28.Google Scholar
  54. Kadri, Ranya, and Ethan Bronner. 2011. Jordan’s King Dismisses Cabinet as Tremors Spread Through Region. The New York Times, February 1.Google Scholar
  55. Kalyvas, Stathis N. 2004. The Urban Bias in Research on Civil Wars. Security Studies 13 (3): 160–190.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Kalyvas, Stathis N. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Kelley, Colin P., Shahrzad Mohtadi, Mark A. Cane, Richard Seager, and Yochanan Kushnir. 2015. Climate Change in the Fertile Crescent and Implications of the Recent Syrian Drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 112 (11): 3241–3246.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Kinder, Donald R., and Thomas R. Palfrey. 1993. Experimental Foundations of Political Science. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Koren, Ore. 2014. Military Structure, Civil Disobedience, and Military Violence. Terrorism and Political Violence 26 (4): 688–712.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Koren, Ore. 2017. Means to an End: Pro-Government Militias as a Predictive Indicator of Strategic Mass Killing. Conflict Management and Peace Science 34 (5): 461–484.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Koren, Ore, and Anoop K. Sarbahi. 2017. State Capacity, Insurgency, and Civil War: A Disaggregated Analysis. International Studies Quarterly (In Press).Google Scholar
  62. Krain, Matthew. 1997. State-Sponsored Mass Murder: The Onset and Severity of Genocides and Politicides. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (3): 331–360.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Levitsky, Steven, and Lucan Way. 2002. The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism. Journal of Democracy 13 (2): 51–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Lichbach, M.I. 1998. The Rebel’s Dilemma. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
  65. Lutz, Ellen L., and Kathryn Sikkink. 2000. International Human Rights Law and Practice in Latin America. International Organization 54 (3): 633–659.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Mamdani, Mahmood. 2001. When Victims Become Killers: Colonialism, Nativism, and the Genocide in Rwanda. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  67. McDermott, Rose. 2002. Experimental Methods in Political Science. Annual Review of Political Science 5 (1): 31–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. 2004. Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach. Journal of Political Economy 112 (2): 725–753.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Mitchell, Neil J., Sabine C. Carey, and Christopher K. Butler. 2014. The Impact of Pro-Government Militias on Human Rights Violations. International Interactions 40 (5): 812–836.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Moore, W.H. 1998. Repression and Dissent: Substitution, Context, and Timing. American Journal of Political Science 42 (3): 851–873.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Moore, W.H. 2000. The Repression of Dissent: A Substitution Model of Government Coercion. Journal of Conflict Resolution 44 (1): 107–127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. O’Loughlin, John, Frank D.W. Witmer, Andrew M. Linke, Arlene Laing, Andrew Gettelman, and Jimy Dudhia. 2012. Climate Variability and Conflict Risk in East Africa, 1990–2009. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (45): 18344–18349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Pierskalla, Jan H. 2010. Protest, Deterrence, and Escalation: The Strategic Calculus of Government Repression. Journal of Conflict Resolution 54 (1): 117–145.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Pierskalla, Jan H., and Florian M. Hollenbach. 2013. Technology and Collective Action: The Effect of Cell Phone Coverage on Political Violence in Africa. American Political Science Review 107 (2): 207–224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. PITF. 2009. Political Instability Task Force Worldwide Atrocities Event Data Collection Codebook Version 1.0B2. http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/atrocities.html.
  76. Poe, Steven C., and C. Neal Tate. 1994. Repression of Human Rights to Personal Integrity in the 1980s: A Global Analysis. American Political Science Review 88 (4): 858–872.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. Project on Justice in Times of Transition (PJTT). 2012. The Syrian Conflict: Acting Early to Create the Conditions for a Shared Future. Newsletter, September. http://www.pjtt.org.
  78. Prunier, Gérard. 2009. Africa’s World War: Congo, the Rwandan Genocide, and the Making of a Continental Catastrophe. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  79. Raleigh, Clionadh, and Dominic Kniveton. 2012. Come Rain or Shine: An Analysis of Conflict and Climate Variability in East Africa. Journal of Peace Research 49 (1): 51–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. Roosa, John. 2006. Pretext for Mass Murder: The September 30th Movement and Suharto’s coup d’e´tat in Indonesia. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.Google Scholar
  81. Rost, N. 2013. Will It Happen Again? On the Possibility of Forecasting the Risk of Genocide. Journal of Genocide Research 15 (1): 41–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  82. Rudé, George. 1964. The Crowd in History, 1730–1848: A Study of Popular Disturbances in France and England. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  83. Rummel, Rudolph J. 1995. Democracy, Power, Genocide, and Mass Murder. Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (1): 3–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  84. Scott, James C. 1998. Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
  85. Seddon, David. 1986. Riot and Rebellion: Political Responses to Economic Crisis in North Africa (Tunisia, Morocco and Sudan). School of Development Studies, University of East Anglia.Google Scholar
  86. Smith, Andrew F. 2011. Starving the South: How the North Won the Civil War. New York: St. Martin’s Press.Google Scholar
  87. Snyder, Jack. 2000. From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict. New York: W. W. Norton.Google Scholar
  88. Staub, Erwin. 1989. The Roots of Evil: The Origins of Genocide and Other Group Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  89. Stepan, Alfred, and Juan J. Linz. 2013. Democratization Theory and the Arab Spring. Journal of Democracy 24 (2): 15–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  90. Straus, Scott. 2006. The Order of Genocide: Race, Power, and War in Rwanda. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
  91. Straus, Scott. 2015. Making and Unmaking Nations: War, Leadership, and Genocide in Modern Africa. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
  92. Su, Yang. 2011. Collective Killings in Rural China During the Cultural Revolution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  93. Talbot, Ian. 1999. Pakistan: A Modern History. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  94. Tarrow, Sidney. 1994. Power in Movement. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  95. Theisen, Ole Magnus, Nils Petter Gleditsch, and Halvard Buhaug. 2013. Is Climate Change a Driver of Armed Conflict? Climatic Change 117 (3): 613–625.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  96. Tilly, Charles. 1978. Collective Violence in European Perspective. CRSO Working Paper 178. https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/50953/178.pdf.
  97. Tilly, Louise A. 1971. The Food Riot as a Form of Political Conflict in France. The Journal of Interdisciplinary History 2 (1): 23–57. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  98. Timmer, Peter. 2004. Food Security in Indonesia: Current Challenges and the Long-Run Outlook. Working Papers 48, Center for Global Development. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1112807.
  99. Tollefsen, Andreas Forø, Ha˙vard Strand, and Halvard Buhaug. 2012. PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure. Journal of Peace Research 49 (2): 363–374.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  100. Ulfelder, Jay, and Benjamin Valentino. 2008. Assessing Risks of State-Sponsored Mass Killing. A Research Paper, the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id = 1703426.
  101. Urdal, Henrik, and Kristian Hoelscher. 2012. Explaining Urban Social Disorder and Violence: An Empirical Study of Event Data from Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities. International Interactions 38 (4): 512–528.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  102. Valentino, Benjamin A. 2004. Final Solutions: Mass Killing and Genocide in the Twentieth Century. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
  103. Valentino, Benjamin A. 2014. Why We Kill: The Political Science of Political Violence Against Civilians. Annual Review of Political Science 17: 89–103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  104. Valentino, Benjamin, Paul Huth, and Dylan Balch-Lindsay. 2004. ‘Draining the Sea:’ Mass Killing and Guerilla Warfare. International Organization 58 (2): 375–407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  105. Varshney, Ashutosh. 1993. Urban Bias in Perspective. In Beyond Urban Bias, ed. Ashutosh Varshney, 3–24. New York: Taylor & Francis.Google Scholar
  106. Varshney, Ashutosh. 2002. Ethnic Conflict and Civil Life: Hindus and Muslims in India. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
  107. Vidal, John. 2013. Climate Change Will Hit Poor Countries Hardest, Study Shows. The Guardian, September 27. http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/sep/27/climate-change-poor-countries-ipcc.
  108. Wade, Rex A. 2017. The Russian Revolution, 1917, vol. 53. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  109. Wallace, Jeremy. 2013. Cities, Redistribution, and Authoritarian Regime Survival. The Journal of Politics 75 (3): 632–645.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  110. Wallenstein, Peter. 1988. Food Scarcity and Human Conflict: Theoretical Considerations and Southeast Asian Experiences. In Food, Development and Conflict: Thailand and the Philippines, ed. Peter Wallenstein. Uppsala: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University.Google Scholar
  111. Waller, James. 2016. Confronting Evil: Engaging Our Responsibility to Prevent Genocide. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  112. Weidmann, Nils B., and Sebastian Schutte. 2017. Using Night Light Emissions for the Prediction of Local Wealth. Journal of Peace Research 54 (2): 125–140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  113. Weinberg, J., and R. Bakker. 2015. Let Them Eat Cake: Food Prices, Domestic Policy and Social Unrest. Conflict Management and Peace Science 32 (3): 309–326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  114. Wilkinson, Steven I. 2006. Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  115. Wood, Reed M. 2014. From Loss to Looting? Battlefield Costs and Rebel Incentives for Violence. International Organization 68 (4): 979–999.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  116. Wright, Joseph. 2008. Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain? How Legislatures Affect Economic Growth and Investment. American Journal of Political Science 52 (2): 322–343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  117. Zhang, Qingling, and Karen C. Seto. 2011. Mapping Urbanization Dynamics at Regional and Global Scales Using Multi-temporal DMSP/OLS Nighttime Light Data. Remote Sensing of Environment 15: 2320–2329.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  118. Zoellick, Robert B. 2011. Citizen Empowerment, Governance Key for Middle East. Press Release No. 2011/407/EXC, April 6.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Political SciencePennsylvania State UniversityState CollegeUSA
  2. 2.Department of Political ScienceIndiana University BloomingtonBloomingtonUSA

Personalised recommendations