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Risk Modeling of Accidents in the Power System of Ukraine with Using Bayesian Network

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Book cover Advances in Computer Science for Engineering and Education (ICCSEEA 2018)

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 754))

Abstract

Current studies of impact of climatic factors on overhead power lines are limited to calculations of load of climatic factors on the overhead transmission lines, so the problem of conducting a comprehensive study of accidents probability under the influence of climatic factors is important.

The paper addresses the research of approaches to spatial risk modeling of overhead power lines accidents in the power systems of Ukraine under the influence of climatic factors. The article presents the construction of a model of accidents under the influence of climatic impacts and prediction of emergencies on based geospatial data sets. Pattern recognition techniques, namely the Bayesian network, were used to simulate accidents and verification of the results. This method is based on calculation of a posteriori probabilities of model variables. As a result, a model of accidents under the influence of climatic factors was built, which constitutes a Bayesian network with given conditional probabilities and independent variables of the model.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Igor Sikorsky KPI, Kyiv, Ukraine

    Viktor Putrenko

  2. Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine

    Nataliia Pashynska

Authors
  1. Viktor Putrenko
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  2. Nataliia Pashynska
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Viktor Putrenko .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. School of Educational Information Technology, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, Hubei, China

    Zhengbing Hu

  2. Mechanical Engineering Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Sergey Petoukhov

  3. Faculty of Applied Mathematics, National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kiev Polytechnic Institute”, Kiev, Ukraine

    Ivan Dychka

  4. Halmos College of Natural Sciences and Oceanography, Nova Southeastern University, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, USA

    Matthew He

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Putrenko, V., Pashynska, N. (2019). Risk Modeling of Accidents in the Power System of Ukraine with Using Bayesian Network. In: Hu, Z., Petoukhov, S., Dychka, I., He, M. (eds) Advances in Computer Science for Engineering and Education. ICCSEEA 2018. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 754. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91008-6_2

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